Badosa's Big Bold Points
Badosa wins the moments that matter in an epic vs Azarenka in Indian Wells
Paula Badosa d Victoria Azarenka 7-6, 2-6, 7-6
One of the best finals of the year. The shotmaking, interesting rallies, and resilience from both players throughout the match was special and I highly recommend watching a replay or at least the highlights. Neither player deserved to lose.
The 2nd set comeback from Azarenka was brilliant, thanks to a mix of a mismatch of intensity between the two players as the second set began, and a particularly aggressive patch (on serve and in rallies) from Azarenka as she pounced on any remotely attackable ball (with a side of very effective net rushing and volleying winning an impressive 18/22 net points overall). But the two most interesting, and decisive, sets were the first and the last, both of which Badosa won in tiebreaks.
Firstly I should note that there was a particularly brutal moment in this match where Azarenka was serving for the match at 5*-4 in the third set. Azarenka hits a good first serve, 30-0 up with the chance to go to 40-0, and then nets a pretty routine forehand:
Azarenka most likely goes on to win the match if she puts this forehand deep and in play. But she missed, committed a couple more unforced errors, and then gave Badosa a look at a soft 2nd serve return (a recurring theme) which led to the break back for 5-5.
The two players finished with extremely even numbers overall.
But despite Azarenka having a chance to end the match, serving at 5*-4 in the third, Badosa held a narrow serve/return edge that played out pretty consistently throughout many of the important moments of sets one and three.
The match really came down to the two tiebreaks. And Badosa came up with the goods in each one:
The reason Badosa’s tidier serving in the tiebreaks was so important was because of Azarenka’s larger problems on 2nd serve all match long. Both players, while returning, abused the opponent’s serve for portions of the match, but Azarenka’s 2nd serve especially represented the most significant weak spot:
1st serve win - sets 1 & 3:
Badosa: 42/70 (60%)
Azarenka: 40/57 (70%)
2nd serve win - sets 1 & 3
Badosa: 20/43 (47%)
Azarenka: 12/39 (31%)
Azarenka’s 1st serve was the more effective of the two (Badosa got a bit predictable with her placement into the Azarenka forehand on 1st serve), but Azarenka’s 2nd serve was losing her the point 70% of the time.
The first two points on Azarenka’s serve in the first set tiebreaker were this:
… followed by a double fault.
Azarenka therefore fell into a 0-4 hole to start the 1st set tiebreak. Badosa actually then let Azarenka off by wildly missing a return on another soft 2nd serve that put Azarenka on the board at 1-4, before Badosa threw in a double fault of her own to erase her lead. The two players then played a run of three long points to finish the breaker with Badosa winning an incredible rally to convert set point (off another very attackable Azarenka 2nd serve). Badosa deserves significant credit for the way she played the last two points of the 1st set tiebreak, out-rallying Azarenka and soaking up a bunch of linear pace and redirecting the ball magnificently.
If Azarenka started the 1st set tiebreaker off tamely, than Badosa demonstrated how it should be done to start the 3rd set breaker. A big Badosa 1st serve, into controlled aggression in the next few shots, to win her first service point, followed by an Azarenka double fault to open up a lead for the Spaniard once again. Badosa then played a wonderful return point to get the double mini-break:
Azarenka never recovered, and Badosa was mostly very good on her own serve to close out the match.
This match really doesn’t need much analysis. It was extremely close and both had significant chances, trading multiple breaks, earlier than the tiebreaks in sets one and three. But Badosa played the three most crucial moments of the match far better than Azarenka, and that made the difference: the 5*-4 service game with Azarenka serving for the match in the third set (Azarenka will be kicking herself), and both tiebreaks.
Pots-match Azarenka noted the difference:
“Sometimes you can be nervous playing in your 1st big final (referencing Badosa). Sometimes you are a bit more free. I felt that today she was playing really free... throughout the match there were moments she was going for it.”
That feels like a succinct summary. Badosa was the ‘freer’ of the two players in the biggest moments. The Spaniard served bigger, hit bigger groundstrokes, and made fewer decelerating errors and double faults than Azarenka when it mattered. Two players who were extremely evenly matched for about 90% of the contest that really mattered, separated only by those three periods of play.
On another day, one of those bolder moments could easily have gone down as a rash error rather than a winner from Badosa’s racquet. But today, boldness won.
— MW
Top: Matthew Stockman/Getty, Bottom: John Cordes/Icon Sportswire/Getty
Twitter @MattRacquet
See you on Thursday.
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I find it interesting, in a good way that throws no shade on her, that Azarenka is now more inclined to play the role of the combatant who has to vary her approach to her opponents, as compared to her style of play in her peak years when she relentlessly mowed through, rather than around, them.