Defusing the Big Serving Counterpuncher Bomb

Bublik dismantles Zverev, the block return and the drop shot, passive-aggressive balance

I’ve written a lot (probably too much) about the ‘Big Serving Counterpuncher’ playstyle that has emerged at the top of men’s tennis. Medvedev and Zverev, via huge serves and unusually good return and movement performances for their height, can both embody it, and have terrorised plenty of opponents over the last few years with it. But something interesting happened on Sunday. Bublik beat Zverev pretty routinely, in straight sets in the Montpellier final. Bublik’s serve performance wasn’t that surprising, he had been serving well all week, and when he’s landing those big first serves on big points it’s tough for anyone to break him. But Bublik’s returning was interesting because it helps a theory I’ve had for a while about some of the better ways players can defuse the Big Serving Counterpunchers of Zverev and Medvedev.

Bublik did multiple things well to upset Zverev, including serving brilliantly under pressure at the end of the 1st set and beginning of the 2nd set, and mixing in some serve and volley and net rushing in general. But most effectively he blocked returns and hit drop shots to defuse Zverev’s usual preferred serve and baseline patterns:

Bublik blocked most of his 1st serve returns. This allowed him to put an unusually high number of returns back in play against the usually excellent Zverev 1st serve.

Not only did Bublik’s excellent block return reduce the number of free points Zverev is used to getting on his 1st serve, but it also set up winning positions for Bublik throughout the match on return. Zverev didn’t miss that many 1st serves when under pressure on his serve, Bublik just came up with the blocked return goods over and over:

The four games where Bublik broke Zverev’s serve all featured a heavy blocked return influence. Bublik won 9/11 return points when he blocked the 1st serve back in play including 3/4 of the break points he won.

So why was this a winning play against Big Serving Counterpuncher Zverev?

The blocked return worked well against Zverev for multiple reasons:

↑ Firstly, Bublik’s (in black) blocked returns regularly drew Zverev into net and forced him to approach with his forehand, a shot which he can occasionally struggle to generate his own pace with (in this case not doing enough and setting up a relatively straightforward pass for Bublik). This also forced Zverev into net and to play volleys, an area he is likely never going to be anywhere near as comfortable as he is on the baseline.

↑ And again, a Bublik short blocked return bringing Zverev into net where he doesn’t want to be. Bublik showed impressive patience with his first passing shots in this match, usually trying to get Zverev to play a tough first volley rather than hitting an outright winner, likely because he knew the second chance to pass, off a usually weak Zverev volley, would be the easier chance to win the point.

↑ Secondly, I think one possible weakness of both big serving counterpunchers (Medvedev and Zverev) is that their serve+1 or their 2nd shot after their serve often doesn’t capitalise on the offensive power of their serve (both their forehands have history of being unusually weak for their height, at least outside purple patches). Here you see Zverev (far end) hit a good serve, Bublik a short blocked return, and Zverev isn’t really able to capitalise at all, engaging in a neutral baseline rally. Medvedev also struggled with his serve +1 in the Australian Open final loss to Nadal. Additionally, something Bublik did really well today, off the back of both serve and return, was choose the right moments to play drop shots in order to avoid Zverev’s grinding baseline strategy. Here you see Bublik waiting until Zverev had retreated on or behind the Montpellier logo before playing the drop shot to bring him into net. Bublik won 8/13 drop shot points in this match, and all 8 featured Zverev extremely deep in the court, often after Bublik had neutralised the serve with a blocked return.

↑ If you remember from the original ‘Big Serving Counterpuncher’ analysis I plotted the classic tall player and the new archetype tall player like video game character attributes. Everything is more balanced in the Big Serving Counterpuncher but the serve+1 category takes a hit. Again, this is simplistic, but hopefully helpful at visualising the evolution of tall player strengths.

↑ Same again. Good blocked return by Bublik to negate Zverev’s serving advantage, patient rallying until Zverev is deep on the Montpellier logo, and then the drop shot to take advantage of the short space in the court.

↑ Another good blocked 1st serve return by Bublik.

↑ Finally, one of the best arguments in favour of blocked returns (as opposed to more aggressive driven returns) is simply that it will often represent a better chance at forcing the server to play a 2nd shot rather than getting a free point or unreturned serve. Here is another Bublik block, coaxing Zverev to hit a tough shot when under pressure down 15-30 on serve, which ultimately sets up break points.

In every tennis match there is a delicate balance between passive play and aggressive play, offence and defence, high risk and low risk. Players obviously need to be able to fluidly adapt to that balance depending on the circumstances. If an opponent is crushing every short ball and volleying well then perhaps the safer blocked returns won’t work (they are far from a cure all and certain players, for eg Nadal, eat up blocked returns easily). But if the opponent isn’t crushing the short balls and/or you’re not making enough returns to put any pressure whatsoever on the server, then the block becomes more attractive. Return risk and serve risk are also two of the more controllable bits of strategy to change as an elite player, because both circumstances allow the player to, at least partially, stop and think before playing the shot, unlike rally strategy which involves more reflexive reacting to whatever is coming at you in the moment mid-point. The passive—aggressive balance is something all players have to negotiate constantly. But my hunch has been for a while the blocked return is probably still underused when it comes to that balance and how it can force the bigger servers in the men’s game right now to have to think about their 2nd and 3rd shots more than usual, especially under pressure. Both Medvedev and Zverev are used to getting an extraordinary amount of free and unreturned points on serve. Taking away that crutch to any degree, as Bublik did against Zverev (and as Shapo often did against Zverev in Melbourne a few weeks ago), is a huge weapon against some of the biggest tools at the top of the men’s game right now.

↑ Rinse and repeat.

Caveats

1. Zverev isn’t serving that well at the moment. After an unusually good season in 2021 when it came to his 2nd serve (usually a weakness), thanks in part to hitting that 2nd serve harder and not decelerating so much through contact, he seems to have reverted to the mean to start 2022. That vulnerability on 2nd serve looks like it may be forcing him into safer placement patterns with his 1st serve so that he can try and avoid hitting 2nd serves at all. This more conservative placement clearly makes the returners life a bit easier including blocks:

   

   Zverev hitting a very conservative, central, 108mph (175kph) 1st serve on Sunday. Zverev clearly feels so vulnerable behind his 2nd serve at the moment that he’s compromising the usual offensive ability of his 1st serve in order to cover up that crack in his game. This is partially where the age-old ‘you’re only as good as your 2nd serve’ advice in tennis comes from.

2. Zverev more generally also wasn’t hitting either of his groundstrokes as well as he can. But some of this was likely down to Bublik not providing any rhythm whatsoever.

So…Big Serving Counterpuncher defused?

None of this means that Medvedev and/or Zverev are going to suddenly plummet down the rankings or get ‘solved’ by opponents. Not only did Bublik have an above average day and Zverev a below average one, but Bublik’s excellent execution isn’t something that too many players at the top of the men’s game can probably pull off right now, either in terms of great blocked returns or cleverly timed drop shots (although Bublik did serve his angles well on Sunday which exploited the deep return position, another hallmark of the Big Serving Counterpuncher). Zverev can play better across the board which will often cover up the cracks that Bublik impressively exposed on the way to his maiden ATP title (both Medvedev and Zverev’s serve+1 ability tends to scale with how well they’re serving for obvious reasons). But there are some blueprints emerging as to the exploitable weaknesses in the Big Serving Counterpuncher’s skillsets (block returns and serve and volley included).

I’m curious whether the chasing pack are paying attention…

— MW

Twitter: @mattracquet

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