Iga and a million ways to win points

Świątek wins Roland Garros, serve+1, Iga's balanced tools, Gauff's lack of serving advantage

Świątek d Gauff: 6-1, 6-3

Very simple piece of analysis today. Świątek was just way, way too good. A recurring theme this season.

Świątek had a bunch of different ways to win points today, off both forehand and backhand, on both serve and return. And Gauff didn’t.

↑ Świątek and Gauff’s serve+1 (first shot after the serve) performance today. When you consider that this doesn’t include unreturned serves, Świątek was pretty much winning every scenario on serve whether she had to hit 1st or 2nd serves or forehands or backhands. Gauff on the other hand was losing most of the scenarios, especially the influential 4/18 on her 1st serve followed by the backhand+1.

↑ Świątek (near end) had no problem hitting deep returns and rushing Gauff’s serve+1 shots. Świątek’s forehand was so dominant and offensive that it usually only took one big strike to end the point. And she set up plenty of ways to hit that first big strike throughout. Best case scenario for Świątek when hitting these deep returns was a winner like this, and usually the worst case was an extended rally on Gauff’s serve offering the American almost no serving advantage.

↑ And even when Gauff (near end) had the time to hit a solid serve+1, she ran into the same problem every other opponent this clay season has also run into: i.e where do you hit to against Świątek? Because Świątek is so balanced off both wings there isn’t really a weak spot that most of the tour can exploit. Here Gauff hits down the line into the Świątek forehand but all that does it open up Świątek’s cross court forehand, which then rushes Gauff’s less consistent forehand wing, and sets up an attackable ball for Świątek. None of the patterns available for Gauff were good ones.

↑ Świątek on the other hand had plenty of strong options on her serve+1. She landed most of her 1st serves on the deuce side wide, trying to rush the Gauff forehand (which worked). Świątek could often crush forehand+1’s like this. This was a 99mph (159kph) forehand winner from Świątek.

↑ On the AD side Świątek landed most of her 1st serves wide into the Gauff backhand which then made it hard for Gauff to make Świątek’s serve+1 complicated, and opened up court space to hit into. Another crushed forehand winner from Świątek and a hugely improved kick serve over the last year or so.

↑ And when Gauff found Świątek’s backhand the result was no better for her. Świątek brutally effective from both wings.

Gauff essentially had nowhere to go on serve, on return, or in baseline rallies. Each option ran her into a Świątek strength, such is the completeness of the Pole, especially on this surface. One of Gauff’s best shots, the backhand cross court, merely set up consistent options for Świątek to hit her own backhand down the line into Gauff’s forehand, which usually resulted in forced errors or more attack opportunities for Świątek. Multiple dead ends of baseline patterns.

This all meant that Świątek had a solid serving advantage of her own (a 12 point edge in her favour in short points on her serve) while also having just as big of an edge in the longer points on Gauff’s serve (+11 points in Świątek’s favour):

Gauff had a narrow short point edge on serve but was losing every other type of point.

Świątek forced 21 errors out of Gauff. Gauff forced just 9 out of Świątek. Gauff had periods of redlining her game late in the 2nd set, but that redlining really only allowed Gauff to temporarily and unsustainably meet Świątek’s level rather than surpass it.

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Seperation

Świątek’s set of tools remains unplayably good, on clay especially, for the field right now. No one else comes close. The top of the WTA rankings currently looks like this:

• 1. Iga Świątek, 8631 points

• 2. Anett Kontaveit, 4325 points

A x2 point lead for Świątek, which is a good representation of the level which separates her from her peers, at least over the last few months of American hard courts and European clay.

Despite the lopsided result it’s been an incredible two weeks for Coco Gauff, capped off with her first Slam final. The 18 year old, mostly because she broke through into public consciousness so early at just 15, feels like she has been around for much longer than she actually has. But Gauff is still extremely young, and still has much time to improve. Coco’s serve and forehand remain exploitable for the very best players, the latter of which is much harder to solve than the former at this point. But her forehand, with the extra time clay affords her, actually looked great for much of the last fortnight until she ran into someone with Świątek’s set of tools, who could so ably rush that wing (Gauff hit 19 unforced forehand errors and 16 forced forehand errors today). It’s going to be exciting to see where Gauff will be at Świątek’s age, in three years time, with three more years of improvement. For now this matchup was a mismatch, and Gauff really missed a reliable forehand weapon (as well as looking understandably nervy to start the match), but check back in 2024.

As the red dust settles on Paris, Iga Świątek unsurprisingly remains perched high, clear above her peers. Her blend of movement, balanced ATP-esque high-margin aggression off both wings, and stated determination/focus combine for a truly formidable No.1 player. Perhaps a good thing for the rest of the tour that we now head into the fleeting grass court season, a surface which Świątek doesn’t have quite the same experience with (just 12 total matches in her tour career life with 7 wins and 5 losses).

Świątek’s 2nd Roland Garros title at just 21 years old, laying solid foundations for clay hegemony.

— MW

I might see you tomorrow for men’s final analysis but it depends on how the match unfolds and if anything particularly interesting or surprising happens.

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Top: Clive Brunskill, Bottom: Robert Prange/Getty

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