The Racquet

Share this post

The First Four Shots Meme

theracquet.substack.com

Discover more from The Racquet

Go deeper into, and get smarter about, tennis. Match analysis and the future of the sport.
Continue reading
Sign in

The First Four Shots Meme

The importance of short points vs long points, the impact of pressure on point length, macro data and real matches

Matthew Willis
Sep 20, 2021
10
Share this post

The First Four Shots Meme

theracquet.substack.com
2
Share
Casper Ruud has a look at his stats mid-match at the NextGen Finals.

During the Djokovic Zverev match, in the men’s semi finals of the US Open, there was a 53 shot rally on set point. Zverev won it, saving the first set point in that game. Djokovic then won a 16 shot rally on the very next point, also a break/set point, to take a two sets to one lead. Mark Kovacs, who focuses on tennis performance science, wrote this at the time:

Twitter avatar for @kovacsinstitute
Kovacs Institute @kovacsinstitute
53 shot rally on set point at the @usopen S/F. Juniors and college players need to understand the need to be able to do this. Not enough train for this the right way.
1:36 AM ∙ Sep 11, 2021
66Likes14Retweets

And he’s right.

Tennis can be guilty of an over-focus on the ‘first four shots’, which has become a bit of a meme in recent years in the tennis strategy community. The first four shots of the point is certainly the most common category of point length in the extremely aggressive tennis meta we currently find ourselves in. But that doesn’t mean longer points are less important or should be neglected. Especially considering that not all points in tennis are created equal when it comes to their importance or influence on the outcome of a match, and that the margins in pro tennis can be razor thin.

A three set match with the score 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 means the winner finishes with, on average, 51.6% of the total available points won. The average number of points played in a match like that is 191. The difference between winning and losing more points than your opponent in that sort of match is, on average, just 3-4 points.

The margins at play are therefore too thin to over-focus on one type of point length.

The Macro

I touched on this in the ‘Sliderman’ analysis of hard court movement a few weeks ago:

…Novak’s return of serve, coupled with his truly extraordinary movement skills, represent a conjoined nightmare of abilities for opponents. Much has been written (in fact too much) about the importance of the 0-4 shots range in professional tennis. Around 65% of points in professional tennis take place in the 0-4 shot range, with that short point majority mostly facilitated by the huge serves we see in the tall modern game. This is how the average breaks down:

  • 0-4 shots: 65% of points

  • 5-8 shots: 27% of points

  • 9+ shots: 8% of points

(Thanks to Shane Liyanage for these and the figures below, taken from the Data Driven Sports Analytics database — sample size 2000+ matches)

But something really interesting happens if we isolate the pressure points i.e all breakpoints (both the BP creator & defender), 30-All, deuce points, AD-40 or 40-AD, all tiebreak points, and 0-30 on serve:

  • 0-4 shots : 57% of points (-8%)

  • 5-8 shots: 33% of points (+6%)

  • 9+ shots: 10% of points (+2%)

Players tend to play longer points, on average, when in pressure situations. And this is where Djokovic’s ability for the return of serve, and the other-worldly movement and sliding skills, become a particularly interesting edge. Players facing Novak not only have to deal with him putting more of their serves in play than usual, but his incredible sliding, movement and defence also helps extend points on their serve longer than any server would ideally like…

I wanted to dig a bit deeper on this and find out what the numbers look like if you remove aces and unreturned serves. While almost every player leans on their serve significantly these days, most service games don’t rely on a majority of aces or unreturnable serves (the average for a top ten player serving on hard courts from 2017-2021 is 1.9 unreturned serves per service game, and fewer for lower ranked players).

So, here’s how the ATP Top 10, and their opponents in those matches, won their points, by point length, on hard courts between 2017 and 2021, separated for serve and return: Sample size is 157,406 non-pressure points and 32,141 pressure points.

(NB: percentages are what % of the points were won in that point length range)

Data from Golden Set Analytics

I think the thing that can irritate strategists about an overemphasis on the ‘first 4 shots’ is that it’s now a given in modern tennis that elite players have big, or at least effective, serves (with the exception of Diego Schwartzman who finished in the top 10 last year). It’s therefore expected that a lot of points during a match will end in that short point range thanks to big 1st serves and powerful serve+1 shots. But because pressure moments can push players into longer point territory, the emphasis on just winning enough 0-4 shot points to tip the balance in a player’s favour becomes dangerous, especially against elite opposition when the matches are close. If the serve and serve +1’s shots are the ‘easier’-earned majority of tennis points, then the 5+ shot points are the harder-earned, but still extremely important, minority. And because these longer points are harder earned at this high level, there’s regularly more of an edge to be gained in winning them. Djokovic knows this. The world No.1 negates opponent’s usual serving advantage better than anyone on hard and grass courts, pushing them into less comfortable, longer point territory as mentioned above.

The Micro

This effect manifests often in big matches. Let’s take the 2019 Wimbledon final as an example (just because it’s a match that almost everyone knows about or watched).

That 2019 final featured three tiebreaks in the 1st, 3rd and 5th sets (all tiebreak points are pressure points). Djokovic won all three tiebreaks and the match, despite almost certainly being the worse player overall. The stat I picked out at the time was that Federer made 11 unforced errors in those crucial tiebreakers, and Djokovic made 0. But no one examined where the edge came in terms of point length in those crucial tiebreaks:

Federer won 44% of points in the 0-4 shot range and Djokovic 56%. A relatively even split. But Djokovic’s edge in the longer points, over 5 shots, was mammoth:

  • Federer won just 27% of points over 5 shots and Djokovic won 73% of them.

But what’s really telling here is that contrary to the usual average — that 65% of points usually occur in the 0-4 shot range and 35% in 5 shots or more — across those three tiebreakers only 55% of points were in that 0-4 shot range, and a whopping 45% in 5 shots or more. So in one of the defining pressure moments of Slam matches in the last decade, there was a nearly 50-50 split between short and longer points. In these tense, high-pressure moments of the match, points ran longer than usual, and Djokovic won 11 points over five shots to Federer’s 4. Djokovic actually won more of his total tiebreaker points, in that final, over 5 shots than under 5 shots (11 to 10). That anyone could look at the influence longer points had over the result of that potentially era-defining final, and many others, and decide that the 0-4 shot range is fundamentally more meaningful than the longer point range is completely beyond me. It’s matchup, and scenario, specific.

The 0-4 shot range in tennis is certainly the most frequent. Those short points unfold more regularly than longer points, which is wholly unsurprising considering how big modern serves are on average and how aggressive players are in the first 1-3 shots of a rally. But, especially at an elite level, there is regularly an edge being found in the longer points, when the pressure is on. The goal here isn’t to discard the importance of short points when it comes to match outcomes, analysis and training. These quick points clearly make up the majority of the sport after all. But we probably do need to start framing this conversation and analysis differently considering how influential these longer points routinely are. The hyper-aggressive tools in modern tennis make the 0-4 shot range the expected majority. But the unexpected or uncommon is where the elite can shine. And we do not need to be teaching and coaching the next generations that the first four shots alone lay a path to greatness. Because when they come up against the future Djokovic’s, Nadal’s, Federer’s, or today’s Medvedev, those longer points can and will make-or-break wins in the razor-thin margin game that is tennis:

Short points and long points. Both are important. But please, more credit for the latter.

— MW

See you on Thursday.

Twitter @MattRacquet

Top: Julian Finney/Getty

// Looking for more?

Most recent:

The Racquet
Medvedev Crosses The Moat
Women’s final: Raducanu return analysis Anyone watching the men’s final would have been able to work out what was happening for the most part, so, for once, this match really doesn’t need too much explaining. Djokovic, physically and mentally exhausted after a tough season and under the pressure of trying to complete the calendar year Grand Slam for the…
Read more
2 years ago · 7 likes · 2 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
Raducanu Returns
Leylah Fernandez 1st serve points won by round: 65% vs Konjuh in 1st Round 80% vs Kanepi in 2nd Round 78% vs Osaka in 3rd Round 66% vs Kerber in 4th Round 70% vs Svitolina in quarterfinals 68% vs Sabalenka in semifinals 56% vs Raducanu in the final There are lots of impressive things about Raducanu. She’s extremely balanced on both forehand and backhand wings, …
Read more
2 years ago · 8 likes · 5 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
The Teens
Carlos Alcaraz, Leylah Fernandez and Emma Raducanu. Eighteen, nineteen, and eighteen. All three have lit up New York at this year’s US Open with fantastic tennis. Alcaraz, absolutely exhausted after his early round heroics, bowed out via retirement against Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals. But both Fernandez and Raducanu are still competing in the s…
Read more
2 years ago · 8 likes · 5 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
When in Flushing Meadows
Stefanos Tsitsipas has been going to the bathroom for too long between sets. Yes, that is an extraordinarily silly sentence, and yet it’s news that has dominated tournament press coverage so far. Even a biblical storm interrupting matches at the US Open yesterday, with…
Read more
2 years ago · 7 likes · 3 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
Sliderman
Novak Djokovic is going for the extremely elusive ‘Calendar Year Grand Slam’ this fortnight in New York, i.e winning all four Slams in a row in the same year. I, and others, have written a lot about Djokovic recently, which is unsurprising considering he’s been the best player in the world for large parts of the last decade. And while one of Novak’s big…
Read more
2 years ago · 9 likes · 3 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
Rublev's Serve Problem
Neither the men’s or the women’s Cincinnati finals were eventful at all, both completely routine. But one of the matches did feature something I want to go a bit deeper on. Barty d Teichmann: 6-3, 6-1 Zverev d Rublev: 6-2, 6-3 After some crazy ATP semi-finals, in which Medvedev…
Read more
2 years ago · 4 likes · 7 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
A New Playstyle Meta Approaches
After watching Opelka upset Tsitsipas followed by Medvedev defeating Isner in Toronto, I tweeted this…
Read more
2 years ago · 5 likes · 6 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
Game, Set, Shit
This will undoubtably be one of the dumber issues of the Racquet I write, but here we go. Yesterday, during his win over Aslan Karatsev in Toronto, Karen Khachanov got in hot water over some particular bits of language. The Russian was given a point penalty for an audible obscenity, down break point, and resultantly lost his serve…
Read more
2 years ago · 4 likes · 3 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
Sinner's Serve
Jannik Sinner has put a stop to his mid-season slump in form to reach the Washington final this week. Tonight he plays Mackenzie McDonald for the trophy. Something interesting happened with Sinner’s serve after his round one loss to Jack Draper on the grass at Queens a month or so ago. Sinner went back to the serving motion he used throughout his junior …
Read more
2 years ago · 4 likes · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
Wimbledon Final Analysis
Note: I make small edits to these posts if I find mistakes, or if I have anything to add. You can see the most recent version by tapping the title (opens web version) at the top of this issue. Djokovic d Berrettini: 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 First off I’m just going to quickly go over how much more of a step up this match was for Berrettini, in relation to hi…
Read more
2 years ago · 7 likes · 20 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
Berrettini Conquers Queens
Berrettini d Norrie: 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-3 Berrettini now has 3 titles on clay, 2 on grass, and 0 on hard courts. Safe to say the dude seems to like the natural surfaces (although competition on grass is weaker than on both clay and hard). The Italian was by far the best player in London throughout the week and enters Wimbledon with plenty of hype…
Read more
2 years ago · 8 likes · 9 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
Medvedev Loves(?)The Clay
Danil Medvedev hates the clay, then he loves the clay, then he hates the clay, and now he uh… loves it again. The Russian has been playing some very good tennis in week one of Roland Garros. So good in fact that some may be left wondering whether his…
Read more
2 years ago · 10 likes · 4 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
Naomi Osaka Boycotts The Press
Naomi Osaka yesterday: “I am writing this to say that I am not going to do any press during Roland Garros. I’ve often felt that people have no regard for athletes' mental health and this rings true whenever I see a press conference or partake in one. We're often sat there and asked questions that we've been asked multiple times before or asked questions …
Read more
2 years ago · 10 likes · 8 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
The Federer Redux
Roger Federer played in Geneva on Tuesday for just his third match in the last 15 months. He lost. His opponent was Pablo Andújar, a solid clay courter in decent form on the back of a busy slate of clay events so far this year. Federer was a break up in set three, having played mostly impressive tennis for the latter two sets, but was foiled by some exc…
Read more
2 years ago · 12 likes · 2 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
Let's Stop Screwing The Umpires On Clay
I’ve wanted to write something on this topic for a while, but two things happened today in Rome that gave me a good excuse. Number 1. Tsitsipas, locked in a very tight 1st set tiebreak against Berrettini, hit this shot (video here…
Read more
2 years ago · 9 likes · 10 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
Monte Carlo Final - Tsitsipas vs Rublev 🎾
VALERY HACHE/AFP via Getty Images Tsitsipas d Rublev: 6-3, 6-3 A one sided, yet still interesting match. The keys today were: Who created more free or easy points on serve Who got to hit more forehands Tsitsipas absolutely dominated in both (related) categories…
Read more
2 years ago · 11 likes · 3 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
Daniil Medvedev Does *Not* Like The Clay
Photo by Alex Caparros/Getty Images Daniil Medvedev, before unfortunately testing positive for COVID and having to withdraw from Monte Carlo, gave a very funny interview about clay courts. After apparently getting taken to the woodshed by Rafael Nadal…
Read more
2 years ago · 10 likes · 8 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
The Modernisation Of Tennis
Tennis, In Need Of A Saviour? Last week Patrick Mouratoglou, the occasionally controversial coach of Serena Williams, made some rather bold claims about the state of tennis while promoting his new ‘Ultimate Tennis Showdown’ tournament: Mouratoglou: “Ten years ago the average age of the tennis fan was 51 years old. Today it’s 61. In ten years it’s going to…
Read more
3 years ago · 18 likes · 3 comments · Matthew Willis
The Racquet
Tennis' Identity Crisis
Welcome to the new subscribers! If you’re reading this but haven’t subscribed to The Racquet, click/tap below to join thousands of other tennis players & fans (it’s free and usually goes out weekly). Issues range from deep tennis analysis & the future of the sport to more topical stuff like today’s…
Read more
3 years ago · 6 likes · 1 comment · Matthew Willis
10
Share this post

The First Four Shots Meme

theracquet.substack.com
2
Share
2 Comments
Share this discussion

The First Four Shots Meme

theracquet.substack.com
James C
Sep 20, 2021Liked by Matthew Willis

Really enjoyed this analysis and agree it's very match up and context dependent (I think there's also a material different between men's and women's tennis in the dominance of 4 shot and under rallies, although it's narrowed over time).

A couple of other points I think might be made: (i) the investment (both mental and physical) and crowd engagement is normally much greater in a lung-bursting 10 shot rally than a quick serve + FH combo, which can give winning a couple of them on big points an intangible additional value; and (ii) there's also the benefit that if a player is winning the long points, they're putting more pressure on their opponent to make the points short, forcing them to take more risks early in the rally (especially on serve).

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
skip
Writes Hits Two Lines Newsletter
Sep 20, 2021Liked by Matthew Willis

Bravo for putting the lie to what, imo, has been a dominant concept that relies on not very nuanced analysis. Yes, the unassessed numbers point to 1-4 shots, but as you show there's more to the story. *Knowing* your opponent can withstand the pressure of not missing in a longer point is its own pressure. Not wanting to be caught out by being the first whose consistency cracks can easily lead to unfulfilled risk taking.

Did the emphasis on 1-4 arise after the early oughties, Kuerten, and matches like Nalbandian/Hewitt at Wimbledon? I remember thinking how early Federer was breaking rules by playing "serve and stand in no-man's land."

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Matthew Willis
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing