Airbending In The Desert

Alcaraz tames the wind, Nadal's volleys, forehand and serve placement

As I write this Nadal is currently losing to Taylor Fritz in the Indian Wells final, although physical issues, Fritz (left ankle) and Nadal (left pec), are making that a pretty questionable match quality and strategy wise. So I thought I’d focus on the marquee match yesterday.

The Nadal Alcaraz semi final was really interesting for a bunch of reasons. It wasn’t consistently high quality, the brutal wind in set two made sure of that, and there were numerous valleys of tennis. But the peaks were pretty special.

Taming the wind

Nadal is known to be one of, if not the, greatest wind players of all time. His high margin, spinny groundstrokes historically have allowed him to remain offensive yet safe in windy conditions and provide him with opportunities to keep balls in court, aiming for large but effective spots. One of the best showcases of Rafa’s ability in the wind was the Roland Garros semi-final win over Federer in 2019, where both played stunning tennis considering the court looked like a tornado in the Namibian desert for parts of the match. But something pretty fascinating happened in the 2nd set yesterday: Alcaraz managed the wind better than Nadal.

Set two, played in a mini-cyclone, was the only set which featured more points played over 5 shots than under:

The wind was heavily blunting both player’s serve potency (neither felt comfortable going big or near the lines) and so forced them into longer points. But Alcaraz managed that reality excellently:

Alcaraz forehand placement by set:

↑ Notice the central clustering of Alcaraz’ forehand in set 2 (middle panel above). Only a handful of forehands in the entire set, out of 76 total, landed in the riskier close-to-sideline corridors. In sets 1 and 3, when the wind was significantly weaker, Alcaraz reverted to his usual, more aggressive placement on the forehand. Excellent adaptation that made sure to keep his errors low.

The forehand was one of the main difference makers in set 2. Nadal missed a ton of them, most notably in the crucial 4-4 game where Alcaraz broke, and Alcaraz didn’t.

Unforced forehand errors in set 2 (windy set):

• Nadal: 11

• Alcaraz: 2

Alcaraz also made sure to place his backhand pretty central as well for parts of set 2¹ (although he probably went too big cross court at times at both 2-2 and 4-4). And he also aimed for safe and central serve spots throughout set 2 as neither player were getting rewarded for going big on 1st serves in the wind.

I can’t stress enough how impressive this was. Nadal is usually the one minimising his error rate in gusty conditions. But Alcaraz successfully aimed for safer spots and let Nadal beat himself when it mattered. The 18 year old was even blocking forehand returns (not usually a winning strategy against the Nadal forehand) in order to make sure he put a high % of Nadal’s serves back in play rather than risking shanks or errors with faster, full racquet swings in swirling conditions:

↑ Alcaraz (far end in blue and white) is normally an aggressive returner. But in set 2 he decided to block quite a few of his forehand returns rather than take big swings (especially in the epic 4-4 game). Normally Nadal is eating these short balls up with his own forehand, but in crazy conditions Alcaraz’ awareness to make Nadal battle with those conditions as much as possible, was crucial. The Alcaraz backhand pass gets the glory here but the strategic awareness as a whole in set 2 was very mature.

Last weekend I wrote about the lesson that Nadal gave Korda in 2nd Round:

If you as a player can lean on your own brilliance or shotmaking? Great. But sometimes it’s just as, if not more, important to give your opponent the chances, and the right environments, to falter.

Alcaraz didn’t need any such lesson. He gave Nadal opportunities to falter, and he did. Which is why we got a third and deciding set…

Nadal in set 3

There were a few reasons why Nadal managed to win set 3, and the match. The players were evenly matched in the final set, and both had much better serve effectiveness than in set 2, both winning 80%+ of their 1st serve points (whereas they were both in the 50%’s in sets 1 and 2). But in a reversal of how quite large chunks of the first two sets had gone, Nadal played the big points better in the deciding set:

• Break points converted in sets 1&2: Nadal 5/20, Alcaraz: 5/11.

• Break points converted in set 3: Nadal 1/1, Alcaraz 0/3.

Part of this was down to better Nadal serving. In particular Rafa found his lefty slider out wide on the AD side over and over again to erase Alcaraz chances and half chances:

Nadal’s 1st serve placement on the AD side in set 3. Didn’t lose a single point when he landed the slider out wide.

The Nadal slider out wide on the AD side was great for the whole of the 3rd set, but especially setting up break point and pressure point saves like this one. One of the many perks of being a lefty tennis player is that, what is often their best serve, comes on the more important side (AD).

Not only did Nadal’s serve help him out in set 3, but his volleys and net craft was on another level on several key points. Nadal’s first, or approaching, volley hadn’t actually been great for most of the match, often playing it a bit safe against the rapid Alcaraz. But Nadal managed to find some ridiculous reflex and anticipatory volleys in set three that got him through some tough service games:

• Nadal net points won in set 3: 10/13

↑ Pretty interesting choice here from Nadal to serve and volley off a pretty safe serve into the Alcaraz forehand. The first half-volley is about all he could have done, but the next two volleys, anticipating Alcaraz’ shot direction, were special. The ability and touch required to control that last backhand volley in particular is mammoth. Huge point as it got Nadal out of this sticky 3-3 game rather than facing another BP. Nadal would break in the next game.

A game later with Alcaraz serving at 3*-4, a couple of Alcaraz errors and a couple more excellent Nadal volleys gave Rafa the decisive break for the match. A deciding set with fine margins but Nadal navigating them better. Not a surprising sentence.

Bullish

A very entertaining and information heavy contest, even if one set was turned into bizarro-tennis due to the wind. Both guys are such great returners (both made more than 80% of 1st serve returns) that it’s one of those matchups where both are often happier on return than serve (with the exception of most of set 3). And some of the rally patterns when both Nadal and Alcaraz were playing well were eerily reminiscent of some of the better Nadal and Djokovic matches, trademarked by an ability of both players to redline groundstrokes but somehow keep that redline intensity going for 10-20 shots while the crowd watched on in disbelief.

There are plenty of reasons to praise both players in the aftermath. For Nadal, he raised his level impressively when it really mattered in set 3 to incinerate the mountain of partially written headlines-in-waiting about a ‘passing of the torch’ moment. Rafa’s absurdly good start to the season pushes on to 20 wins and 0 losses, and we all got yet another reminder of why he is as great as he is. For Alcaraz, the youngster did something I wasn’t expecting anyone to do to Nadal in current form — outplaying/thinking the master of wind in a fierce gale. Not only did Alcaraz show seriously impressive tennis IQ and maturity in that regard, but he also continued to demonstrate the many reasons why so many are excited about his career and upside. An all-round baseline game that was superior to Nadal’s for large portions of the match, impressive net instincts and touch, and an increasingly potent serve. The bullishness is warranted.

Alcaraz (post match): "It's probably the match that I lost during which I had the most fun. I smiled during several incredible points from Rafa. I had fun even though I lost. I left the court satisfied with my level and my performance."

So he should.

— MW

Twitter: @mattracquet

See you on Thursday.

Top and bottom: Clive Brunskill/Getty

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1. Alcaraz’ backhand placement in set 2.