5 Comments
May 8, 2022Liked by Matthew Willis

These just keep getting better and better. I had noticed the AD serve sporadically but to see it broken down like that for all the important points was incredible. What a player that kid is.

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May 9, 2022Liked by Matthew Willis

Great analysis. He could become a monster if he cuts down those forehand errors as pointed below by Hugh Clarke. On the other hand, as a player cuts down errors, we've seen that they tend to become a bit more conservative, which could be to Alcaraz's detriment. Do you have any analysis on what was different about his match in Monte Carlo against Korda? I did not get to watch the match or the tournament, so I have no reference points. Granted, the altitude-related variables in Madrid are well-known, as are the bounce variations. But did Alcaraz fade in the third set or was there something else going on?

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Always tough to compare two matches against two different opponents, but the simple answer is that Korda played better than usual on clay and Alcaraz played worse that day. I think Monte Carlo was just a case of a too quick transition between hard and clay for Alcaraz after he won Miami, so I'm not sure that his loss to Korda reveals some larger key to beating him. I do think that both Nadal and Djokovic, in better form, have plenty of ways to make Alcaraz's life more difficult than their matches in Madrid, including coaxing more errors via certain rally patterns. I'd also still like to see 2022 Alcaraz against Medvedev on hard courts, because it'll answer a few questions I have about Alcaraz shot tolerance against a big serving counterpuncher. For now Alcaraz looks unbeatable, but there are still a bunch of interesting matchup questions that still need answering over the next few months.

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Great piece. Interestingly I did stats on where Alcaraz was missing groundies, and his running forehand is by far and away the chink in his armor. He hit 1 running forehand winner in this match, yet missed 24 of them. Backhand was far more solid. Rafa and Novak will have the numbers and next time they play I think both will go much harder into the forehand.

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An interesting point. The biggest distinguisher for a star is being good at the hardest skills--shots on the run in tennis, analogous to off-the-dribble shooting in basketball. Being able to maintain a threat even in disadvantageous situations. Something to watch (fwiw I’m all aboard the alcaraz train)

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