Big Serving Counterpunchers Battle In Turin Final

Zverev's different strategies, Medvedev's forehand, matchup caveats

Zverev d Medvedev: 6-4, 6-4

Zverev finally turns it around after losing the last 5 in a row to Medvedev.

Subtle changes over the last three matches

When they met in Paris a few weeks ago, on the slower court, Medvedev won by serenely looking after his own service games with booming serves, while also dominating the points that developed into baseline rallies (many of which happened on Zverev’s serve):

Then, in the group stages in Turin earlier this week, during a much tighter match which could have gone either way, Zverev looked like he was starting to figure some things out while also benefiting from faster conditions relative to Paris. Zverev kept up with Medvedev both on serve and from the baseline (despite losing narrowly):

Finally, today in the final in Turin, Zverev absolutely dominated the serve/return dynamic while also keeping pace in the longer rallies:

Medvedev didn’t have his best day on serve, Zverev had a near flawless day on his serve, and that made up most of the difference as the shorter point supremacy largely decided the winner. But when things did develop into baseline rallies, despite Medvedev narrowly winning more points over 5 shots, it was actually Zverev who won most of the important longer, rally points (more on that later).

Serve and Return

Medvedev’s serve placement today wasn’t at its lethal best, with regular deliveries into the Zverev forehand landing quite central in the service box:

Medvedev’s 1st serve placement today. While serving into the Zverev forehand is usually better than serving into the stronger backhand return, the placement from Medvedev probably wasn’t quite good enough to actually capitalise on that dynamic.

The red (losing points) cluster of dots going fast into the Zverev forehand return didn’t do Medvedev many favours today, with Zverev returning particularly well off his forehand wing off those big, but quite central, Medvedev serves:

This point set up the decisive break point in the 2nd set. Medvedev (this end) hits a big serve into the Zverev forehand (in theory the weaker wing) but Zverev redirects it excellently to rush Medvedev’s 2nd shot and take control of the point.

Conversely, Medvedev’s forehand return of serve, off Zverev’s very successful 1st serve today, wasn’t quite so dialled in:

A pretty similar serve (this time from Zverev at far end) but Medvedev didn’t seem to have much feel on this forehand return of serve throughout the match.

Medvedev actually had so much trouble returning Zverev’s serve with his forehand, for most of set one and the beginning of set 2, that the Russian started to move early on a number of serves to give himself more time to hit that forehand. The problem for Medvedev was that this opened up space to the other side, which Zverev happily took advantage of:

Medvedev (far end) guessing to his forehand side (watch the split steps) and getting burned.

// After Set 1, Medvedev had made just 30% of his forehand returns, Zverev 70%.

Forehand battle

While the two players finished pretty even on the longer points over 5 shots, with Medvedev actually winning marginally more of them (25-23), Zverev won most of the important long rallies today. Zverev did so thanks to quite a clear change in strategy across his last three matches vs Medvedev.

In Paris a few weeks ago, Zverev hit only about half (55%) of his forehands into Medvedev’s forehand (left) and just 35% of his backhands into Medvedev’s forehand (right).

In their match in Turin earlier this week, especially as the match wore on, Zverev seemed to figure out that he needed to be going into the Medvedev forehand wing more and more. Zverev hit his forehand cross court into the Medvedev forehand 67% of the time (left), and hit his backhand down the line into the Medvedev forehand 37% of the time (right). The main change here, compared to Paris, was the forehand strategy with 12% more of Zverev’s forehands going cross court into the Medvedev forehand than in Paris.

Today, Zverev overwhelmingly favoured hitting into the Medvedev forehand. Zverev hit his forehand cross court into the Medvedev forehand a whopping 74% of the time, and Zverev hit his backhand down the line in to the Medvedev forehand 58% of the time. A large departure from their meeting in Paris a few weeks ago on both wings, and a change in backhand strategy compared to their group stage match in Turin earlier this week.

This was a significant change in rally strategy from Zverev and it paid off for a number of reasons.

Zverev today was in far better forehand form than Medvedev and either successfully broke down the Medvedev forehand…

Zverev (far end) hitting that backhand down the line into the Medvedev forehand to initiate that cross court forehand battle which Medvedev ends up losing with an error.

Medvedev (this end) not able to do much with these cross court forehands, floating one right into ideal strike range for Zverev to pounce on, and then missing the low-margin attempt down the line, essentially bailing out of the point.

…or looked for, and succeeded with, the first attackable ball down the line:

Zverev much more comfortable hitting the first big strike up the line when they got into these cross court exchanges today.

Again Zverev sticking with that backhand down the line into the Medvedev forehand to initiate the cross court forehand trade and then letting rip down the line on the right ball. This was something that Zverev could do all match long while Medvedev mostly couldn’t…

Conversely when Medvedev tried to be the one to hit his forehand up the line instead, the Russian struggled today, even when faced with quite short attackable balls:

Medvedev (far end) struggling to generate pace off his forehand today, which made it harder for him to escape those forehand battles, and again Zverev hitting that backhand into the Medvedev forehand to initiate this pattern.

Zverev, on this fast court, was much more comfortable generating pace and being the first one to take the aggressive strike from his forehand wing than Medvedev. To be clear, Zverev had an above average day with his forehand and Medvedev a below average day, but I do think that faster courts can suit Zverev in this matchup as these conditions don’t allow Medvedev to defend and smother the deep court quite as ably, and they can aid Zverev’s greater natural offence from his groundstrokes relative to Medvedev, who occasionally struggles to generate his own pace (especially on that forehand):

Zverev’s better serving and more effective ground game also enabled the German to rush the net effectively today, usually coming in on the right ball with Medvedev way out of position. Zverev won 15/21 net points compared to Medvedev’s 4/7.

Has this matchup changed?

I think this match stands a decent chance at being over-analysed. Zverev played near flawless tennis, in every area, and Medvedev was not at his best in any department (and looked a little jaded). For now at least, on average across all the different hard court speeds on tour I’d still favour Medvedev more often than not in this matchup when both are in form (narrowly). But Zverev, by way of some superior serving (handily out ace-ing Medvedev and hitting a higher % of unreturned serves), a significant changeup when it comes to baseline rally strategy, and a very good day on his forehand, has certainly swung the matchup pendulum closer to his side than it was before.

Don’t be surprised if their next five matches are more competitive, or even swing towards Zverev, compared to their last five.

Today at least, Zverev was simply the better of the two big serving counterpunchers.

— MW

Twitter @MattRacquet

See you on Thursday.

Top: Julian Finney/Getty

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