Edit: Want to add that Tsitsipas has won forehand to forehand patterns against Djokovic in their past matches (in part because it reduces likelihood of initiating backhand exchanges). But for a variety of reasons today's match unfolded a bit differently, especially when it came to which Djokovic side (forehand or backhand) produced more winning patterns for Tsitsipas when aiming into for the first few shots of each point. This analysis isn't claiming that Djokovic's backhand is suddenly the place to aim (although it sometimes is for some matchups on clay), just that today it worked out that way and why.
Hv long thought Novaks FH a better weapon than his BH, and his depth today constantly had Stef in trouble. Can’t see beyond him as fav for 7 Bof5 matches at RG.
Stef seemed slightly tired today I thought, and hot, (he’s had a very deep clay season). I noticed he rarely even made a start on running down droppers, and even when ahead in Set 2, never looked really settled & comfortable on the ball. His racket prep seemed slightly late at times, resulting in a lot of shanks. All that said, if Nadal is still “struggling”, I’d still put Stef as 2nd fav.
Great write-up, Matthew, thanks. Any stats on the rpm's on Djokovic's fh in this match vs his historical numbers?
Historical avg is 2600-2700 RPM. In Rome final he was at 2640 so bang on avg.
Edit: Want to add that Tsitsipas has won forehand to forehand patterns against Djokovic in their past matches (in part because it reduces likelihood of initiating backhand exchanges). But for a variety of reasons today's match unfolded a bit differently, especially when it came to which Djokovic side (forehand or backhand) produced more winning patterns for Tsitsipas when aiming into for the first few shots of each point. This analysis isn't claiming that Djokovic's backhand is suddenly the place to aim (although it sometimes is for some matchups on clay), just that today it worked out that way and why.
Hv long thought Novaks FH a better weapon than his BH, and his depth today constantly had Stef in trouble. Can’t see beyond him as fav for 7 Bof5 matches at RG.
Stef seemed slightly tired today I thought, and hot, (he’s had a very deep clay season). I noticed he rarely even made a start on running down droppers, and even when ahead in Set 2, never looked really settled & comfortable on the ball. His racket prep seemed slightly late at times, resulting in a lot of shanks. All that said, if Nadal is still “struggling”, I’d still put Stef as 2nd fav.