Djokovic Has Plan A Through Z
Djokovic's forehand balance, Tsitsipas nearly solves a puzzle, 2nd serves, serve placement, micro not macro, Roland Garros favourites
Djokovic d Tsitsipas: 6-0, 7-6(5)1
This was a bit of a funny match. Djokovic was unplayably good for most of set one, in particular off his forehand wing (his serve +1 forehand was flawless at 8/8 points won). But Tsitsipas also didn’t really show up at the start of the match. The 2nd set then featured the right strategic changeup from Tsitsipas, setting the Greek up to serve for the set at 5*-3, followed by a bit of a collapse. I’m going to start with some zoomed out stuff and then zoom into two particular chunks of points which swayed the outcome. Finally I’ll touch on Roland Garros prospects.
Djokovic serve and forehand potency returns
During Monte Carlo and Belgrade I wrote this about Djokovic:
This has been a theme for Djokovic in early parts of his clay seasons for some time now post-prime. He initially struggles to find the kind of 1st serve dominance and power he needs, especially off his forehand wing, and ends up playing gruelling exchanges which compound physically which then seeps into and affects the rest of his usually excellent game.
But now, over the course of Madrid and Rome, Djokovic’s 1st serve and forehand have been firing. Novak has timed his form on the clay about as well as he could have hoped going into Roland Garros. Similar to last year.
After Monte Carlo and Belgrade, Djokovic had lost 7 sets on clay in 2022 and won 8.
1st serve points won in the sets Djokovic lost pre-Madrid: 56%
1st Serve points won in the sets Djokovic won pre-Madrid: 76%
Over the course of Madrid and Rome, Djokovic lost just 2 sets and won 15. Alcaraz, and his excellent return game, isn’t just the only player to beat or even takes sets off Djokovic in the last two tournaments, he’s also the only player to dent Djokovic’s 1st serve performance over the last few weeks. In every other match and set in Madrid and Rome, Djokovic won at least 70% of his 1st serve points (and often closer to or above 80% like today’s match vs Tsitsipas @ 81%). Novak’s 1st serve and forehand +1 potency has returned on the clay:
Avg forehand speed in set 1 today vs Tsitsipas:
Djokovic: 81mph (130kph)
Tsitsipas: 73mph (117kph)
Unreturned serve rate (match total):
Djokovic: 40%
Novak’s forehand pace ended up normalising a bit lower in a more competitive 2nd set, but Djokovic had one of the best forehand performances I have ever seen from him in set 1 today. And one of the reasons Tsitsipas got so demolished in that opening set is that he was explicitly targeting Djokovic’s forehand wing to start the match:
I think at times Djokovic’s backhand has such an enormous and intimidating reputation that his opponents can be suckered into underplaying to that side. But when Djokovic’s forehand is in form, which it is now, it’s the more offensive and dangerous shot (same for 99% of ATP players). Djokovic’s backhand can also be the more exploitable wing on higher bouncing clay if the opponent can get enough pace and height into that side (see Alcaraz’s kick serves last week in Madrid).
This meant that Tsitsipas’ usual serve +1 (2nd shot after the serve) performance, which is usually at its best on clay with him having plenty of time to hit forehands, was cratered in the opening set:
Tsitsipas changeup
But Tsitsipas, to his credit, seemed to acutely understand what was happening and why it was happening, and made some significant adjustments in set 2:
And it worked.
Tsitsipas unreturned 1st serves by set:
Set 1: 8%
Set 2: 46%(!)
Not only was Tsitsipas getting far more free points on serve in the second set, but when the ball did come back from Djokovic’s backhand return, Tsitsipas was able to do far more with his forehand +1 (after the 1st serve):
And it wasn’t only Tsitsipas’ serve strategy that had changed. Between the beginning of set 2 and him serving for the 2nd set at 5*-3 he had completely changed Djokovic’s forehand-backhand balance compared to set 1:
Set 1
Djokovic: 45 forehand groundstrokes, 24 backhand (65% forehands)
Set 2 up until 5*-3:
Djokovic: 20 forehand groundstrokes, 30 backhands (40% forehands)
Tsitsipas had started to pepper the Djokovic backhand with his serve and first forehand, and either profited by coaxing errors, waiting for the right ball to attack, or simply by stifling the current Djokovic forehand strength:
Djokovic had fallen off a bit from his absurd set one level and Tsitsipas had finally shown up. This meant that Tsitsipas worked his way to serving for the 2nd set at 5*-3. But that 5*-3 game and the tiebreak featured two pivotal periods of play that meant Djokovic won this match in straight sets rather than sending us to a decider.
The Micro
Tsistipas had done very well to get to 5*-3, serving for the second set. But then this happened:
5*-3 game 2nd set:
0-0: Tsitsipas 1st serve into Djokovic backhand, big +1 forehand into Djokovic backhand and Tsitsipas smash ends the point (so far so good for Tsitsipas)
15-0: 2nd serve, Tsitsipas backhand unforced error +1
15-15: Tsitsipas 1st serve into Djokovic forehand, Djokovic return winner:
↑ Not entirely sure why Tsitsipas chose to hit this first serve into Djokovic’s forehand here, especially as safe as he did and considering how well the T serve into Djokovic’s backhand was working in this 2nd set. But Djokovic gave it the same treatment he had been giving these serves all match long. 15-30: 1st serve into Djokovic backhand, long rally develops, Tsistipas tries a backhand drop shot and it misses low into the net.
15-40: Tsitsipas 2nd serve into Djokovic backhand, Tsitsipas big forehand and backhand into Djokovic backhand to get the right forehand to attack… but forehand unforced error:
Tsitsipas played this break point perfectly until he didn’t. He attacks the Djokovic backhand, gets the ball he wants to attack but then hits a pretty wild error and the match is back on serve.
The long rally ending with a drop shot (at 15-30) looked like it fatigued Tsitsipas, who may be feeling multiple long matches recently. But that game, especially the 15-15 and 15-40 points, was a strange one considering that Tsitsipas had all the momentum up until that 5*-3 game in set 2. Djokovic’s return forehand winner seemed to reignite him.
The tiebreak
The tiebreak then also featured some curious moments.
— Tsitsipas on serve in the tiebreak —
Four 1st serve points: won all four and all four went into the Djokovic backhand — three unreturned serves and one serve+1 winner (set 2 strategy working).
Two 2nd serve points — lost both with two Tsitsipas backhand unforced errors in the points that developed (more on this further down).
At the other end of the court, Djokovic’s service performance in the tiebreak was frankly fascinating. He started off poorly and finished pretty much flawlessly.
Djokovic’s first two service points of the tiebreak featured two of the slowest 2nd serves I have ever seen him hit. The first at 0*-1 was 70mph (114kph) and the 2nd at 1*-1 was just 68mph(!) or 111kph:
Those two points, two opportunities for Tsitsipas to be aggressive on very weak Djokovic 2nd serves, both of which Tsistipas had the chance to play big forehand returns, both lost with (more) backhand unforced errors.
Tsitsipas, after going down a mini break, managed to then get back to 5-5 in the tiebreak after winning a long rally on Djokovic’s serve at 5*-4. But again Djokovic bounced back quicker. 3/4 of Djokovic’s points after those slow 2nd serves to start the tiebreak were unreturned or aces. Tsistipas’ last service point (facing match point) was a 2nd serve followed by another backhand unforced error.
2nd serve points won:
Djokovic: 56%
Tsitsipas: 35%
As long as Tsitsipas could keep his big 1st serves landing into Djokovic’s backhand, giving him time to subsequently find openings with his forehand, the Greek was winning points. But most other scenarios featured Djokovic as the heavy favourite. As we’ve seen hundreds of times before, Novak’ A through Z plans worked and gave him multiple winning patterns while his opponents could only really rely on their Plan A. It certainly pays to be one of the greatest and most balanced players of all time.
The last two GIFs above, the crucial 15-40 point at 5*-3 and the 1-1 point in the tiebreak, as well as the match point (all lost by Tsitsipas), came after quite long rallies. Perhaps Tsitsipas was fatigued. But it’s a great sign for Djokovic that he’s the one holding up in those kind of moments, even when he’s throwing in puffball 2nd serves. This is actually something that Nadal couldn’t punish either during the Roland Garros semi final last year, with Djokovic throwing in plenty of attackable 2nd serves but Nadal not able to do as much as he usually could with his forehand returns (Djokovic posted an unusually high 2nd serve win rate in that match). Whether or not anyone will be able to do better at Roland Garros in a few weeks time is another question.
On to Paris
I saw a lot of comments after this match about how bad Tsitsipas was or about how good Djokovic was. But I don’t actually think this match was that simple. Ignoring the low information beatdown of the 1st set, where Djokovic truly was superb, this was an extremely back and forth contest. Tsitsipas arguably should have won the 2nd set, either through serving it out at 5*-3 or through capitalising on a weak serving start to the tiebreak from Djokovic. I think a better and maybe fresher version of Tsistipas does more in that 2nd set and pushes this to a decider. But we also have plenty of information about what usually happens between these two players in a deciding set (*Tsitsipas flashbacks intensify*). Djokovic got errors out of the Tsitsipas backhand today when he needed them, and that is not the first time that’s happened on clay. I would have called Djokovic a significant favourite to win even if Tsitsipas had pushed this to a third set.
What can’t be ignored is that Djokovic has (somewhat predictably) found his clay footing at just the right time. He goes into Roland Garros in similar form as he did last year (when he won). Novak’s 1st serve and forehand are both looking excellent (Djokovic hit 13 forehand winners to Tsitsipas’ 6 today), and his match fitness, something that was clearly lacking in gruelling matches in Monte Carlo and Belgrade earlier this season, looks ever-improving. The question now is whether anyone can beat him in this current form. Novak’s two biggest challengers are Nadal (who is currently dealing with ‘crazy’ foot pain) and Alcaraz (who has never won a major title and is short on best of 5 set experience). Perhaps a better version of Tsitsipas could also put up a test for Novak in Paris, but it’s only really Nadal and Alcaraz who have the return games (along with other attributes) likely to cause serious trouble for Djokovic’s serve. I’m struggling to see who in the rest of the field, barring a one match wonder, could do much harm to Djokovic in this form (maybe a peaking Schwartzman but unlikely). I do think there are still chinks in the Djokovic clay armour at this point of his career, some of which Tsitsipas exposed in set 2 today. But I’m not sure whether the players who can see, and crucially exploit, those chinks most capably will be fit or experienced enough to get to that battle in the first place in a few weeks time. As a result, Djokovic should enter Roland Garros, deservedly, as the favourite.
On to Paris.
— MW
Top: Julian Finney/Getty
Twitter: @mattracquet
See you on Thursday.
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This would usually have been a Swiatek analysis but PrimeVideo have banned any image or clip sharing from their matches, even for obvious ‘fair use’ cases like strategy and match analysis. As I’d rather not get more cease and desist letters from Amazon’s lawyers, that puts non-Slam WTA analysis on the backburner for now (as if their dire stat tracking wasn’t already bad enough). I had already charted the whole Swiatek Jabeur final, but that analysis will now sadly be relegated to the bin.
Great write-up, Matthew, thanks. Any stats on the rpm's on Djokovic's fh in this match vs his historical numbers?
Edit: Want to add that Tsitsipas has won forehand to forehand patterns against Djokovic in their past matches (in part because it reduces likelihood of initiating backhand exchanges). But for a variety of reasons today's match unfolded a bit differently, especially when it came to which Djokovic side (forehand or backhand) produced more winning patterns for Tsitsipas when aiming into for the first few shots of each point. This analysis isn't claiming that Djokovic's backhand is suddenly the place to aim (although it sometimes is for some matchups on clay), just that today it worked out that way and why.