Terrific analysis, the stuff on Djokovic's second serve was particularly interesting. I'm sure you're right that it was intentional.
Overall, despite his return greatness, I was surprised at how well Djokovic handled Berrettini's serve and how he did so pretty much right out of the box. As you note, he did get better as game went on but often against the really big servers it'll take him quite a while to get dialed in.
Although Berrettini got a set off Djokovic, I could've imagined the Shapovalov match going against him easier than this one (which is again a suprise to me). I hope it was breakthrough tournament for Shapo.
Thanks tm. I agree that the Shapo match could easily have been more complicated than this one, largely because Shapo's backhand can be better than Berrettini's
Great analysis! Thanks Matt. You mentioned that Djokovic is aging out of the game, whereas many commentators think he's playing his best tennis and could go on like this for 3 - 4 more years. What do you think?
Thanks David. I think all three are ageing out as a group quite slowly, but Federer (obviously given he's 5+ years older) and Rafa (bit further along in his career arc given he entered prime earlier and matured younger) are further ahead. I don't agree that this is the best version of Djokovic, as I think his 'peak' was pretty firmly between 2011-2016. And I think his level right now is slightly flattered by a weaker field than the crazy strong competition years of 2008-2014 ish. But I do agree that he, and likely Rafa too, are still capable of playing at their absolute best for short periods or runs of matches (Djokovic beating Nadal at Roland Garros was a good example of this). I think Novak, given how well he's looked after his body as well as a bit of luck to not have some of the injuries of Nadal (knee) and Fed (back and knee), could very easily play at this level for a few more years, yes. It's probably the biggest factor in the greatness debate if you value longevity.
Avg speeds say no. Think it's more likely that Djokovic was making him play forehands from suboptimal positions more and more frequently as the match wore on.
To my mind this match is proof positive of the added value, or added complexity, provided by the rule against mid-match coaching. On the one hand we have Djokovic intuiting his way to 75 mph second serves, while on the other hand there's Berrettini *not* seeing that he's being bamboozled.
The stats are fascinating, but of course all post-match. A player cannot quantify for themselves what's happening, mid-match, in any way that's close to such detail, but a coach can. For my money we will cheapen what it takes to win tough matches – whether they're tough tactically or emotionally/psychologically (see: Barty/Pliskova) – if the calls for letting coaches on court are heard and accepted all around. Worst case scenario, yes, but do we want a courtside coach getting these stats from an off-court team member and sharing them on changeovers? In the increasingly data-driven tennis world is that so far-fetched? (Can I use more hyphens?)
Making your opponent pay for missing first serves, somehow, is a basic tenet of a winning game. Letting a player like Nole start the point as if it's 21-out-of-the-hand only plays to his strengths. Berrettini never saw that, never did anything different. Whether the outcome would have changed is not sure, but at least the Italian would have thrown the challenge back into Djokovic's lap a bit more.
I didn't watch the whole match, but did Berettini ever try running around his backhand? Seems like that could be another tactic to try to get out of backhand jail, although Djokovic has a killer backhand dtl as well.
Oh mannn, I love how granular the stats breakdowns are, so well done! Definitely a step up from the freezing cold takes and petty fan feuds on /r/tennis and Tennis Twitter 🙃
I have a general question regarding Berrettini’s backhand. How do you compare it (in terms of quality) to the backhands of similar guys on the tour that rely heavily on their forehands/serve +1s and have exploitable backhands? For example Rublev, Hurkacz, Tsitsipas, Ruud, etc.
I’m asking because I’m struggling to make sense of that shot since he came back from his injury earlier this year. I feel like compared to 2019, it has improved and became more solid, but it is still very susceptible to breaking down more frequently than not.
Thanks Hann. It's unfortunately worse than all of those players if we're talking about topspin backhands. He has a better slice than all of them though so it's a bit more nuanced and even his topspin backhand has improved in the last few years (it was solid during the clay season for example). Given he's already 25 and in his prime (and past key developmental age) he probably just needs to find ways to make sure it doesn't get exposed like yesterday. More slices probably. A technique change would be tough at this stage of his career.
Hi Matt, thanks for a great analysis as always. It was very interesting to read about Djokovic's tactic on the 2nd serve, soft-balling it to the Berrettini backhand. I have a few questions about Djokovic's 1st serve strategy. I came across a piece by Craig O'Shanessey on atptour.com which pointed out that Djokovic when serving to Berrettini's forehand on the first serve was highly successful--he won 21/22 (!) 1st serves made wide to the deuce court and 13/13 (!!) 1st serves made down the T in the ad court. The success of this strategy in the deuce court is understandable because it pulls Berrettini out wide and opens up the court, but why was it equally effective in the ad court? Is it because it gives Berrettini no angle to work with on the return--or does Berrettini generally do something off the forehand return that makes it more attackable/prone to error? Finally, for all the success Novak had with this strategy it's interesting he mixed up his 1st serve locations on both sides (as you pointed out)--I'm presuming this is just so it doesn't become too predictable?
Thanks Ronnie. I didn't actually find the 1st serve strategy particularly interesting for a couple of reasons. 1. Novak did what he had been doing for most of the tournament, splitting between T and wide pretty evenly and winning high 70's to mid 80's % of points. No one this tournament had an answer for Novak's 1st serve and Berrettini was no exception. 2. Berrettini's 1st serve return has never been particularly good, so it was unlikely that Novak was ever going to struggle too much on that metric. As for that T serve on the AD side, Novak hits that serve more consistently re placement than maybe anyone on tour right now. It's this slice serve that swings away from the returner and has been a huge plus for him since about 2018, and devilishly difficult for most returners. As for your last question, yup, an even split of direction means Berrettini was left guessing at times.
This is fascinating. I thought that Djokovic was serving soft seconds because he was nervous and imo cost him the first set. In particular, the tiebreaker was lost because Berrettini was able to attack those puff-ball second serves. But even after that, everyone was thinking that Berrettini would have to maintain that high level which he just couldn't do.
You basically open with this thought, but ultimately I found this match so routine that it was almost boring. Besides the first set making things somewhat interesting, Djokovic never had to raise his level to crazy heights and I think it's because Berrettini is so one-dimensional.
This breakdown helps me realize that Berrettini is basically Roddick and it makes me somewhat impressed with his general success because one would think that it would be even harder to be a top player with this kind of game in today's environment. Even Roddick was working on his volleys and backhand long before he retired, ultimately culminating in his best match at 09 Wimbledon despite the loss.
Whenever Djokovic was on the ropes, he could hit it to Berrettini's backhand and re-set the point at neutral. And letting Djoker restart points at will is bad news for anyone on tour.
That video game attribute thing was really interesting and pretty fun. I wouldn't mind seeing a bit more of that.
Will do a post on the top 10 men and women in video game attribute form.
Terrific analysis, the stuff on Djokovic's second serve was particularly interesting. I'm sure you're right that it was intentional.
Overall, despite his return greatness, I was surprised at how well Djokovic handled Berrettini's serve and how he did so pretty much right out of the box. As you note, he did get better as game went on but often against the really big servers it'll take him quite a while to get dialed in.
Although Berrettini got a set off Djokovic, I could've imagined the Shapovalov match going against him easier than this one (which is again a suprise to me). I hope it was breakthrough tournament for Shapo.
Thanks tm. I agree that the Shapo match could easily have been more complicated than this one, largely because Shapo's backhand can be better than Berrettini's
Great analysis! Thanks Matt. You mentioned that Djokovic is aging out of the game, whereas many commentators think he's playing his best tennis and could go on like this for 3 - 4 more years. What do you think?
Thanks David. I think all three are ageing out as a group quite slowly, but Federer (obviously given he's 5+ years older) and Rafa (bit further along in his career arc given he entered prime earlier and matured younger) are further ahead. I don't agree that this is the best version of Djokovic, as I think his 'peak' was pretty firmly between 2011-2016. And I think his level right now is slightly flattered by a weaker field than the crazy strong competition years of 2008-2014 ish. But I do agree that he, and likely Rafa too, are still capable of playing at their absolute best for short periods or runs of matches (Djokovic beating Nadal at Roland Garros was a good example of this). I think Novak, given how well he's looked after his body as well as a bit of luck to not have some of the injuries of Nadal (knee) and Fed (back and knee), could very easily play at this level for a few more years, yes. It's probably the biggest factor in the greatness debate if you value longevity.
Did Berrettini’s forehand grow more tentative as the match went on? Seemed like many of his forehands fell short in the fourth set.
Avg speeds say no. Think it's more likely that Djokovic was making him play forehands from suboptimal positions more and more frequently as the match wore on.
A great write-up, again. Thanks.
To my mind this match is proof positive of the added value, or added complexity, provided by the rule against mid-match coaching. On the one hand we have Djokovic intuiting his way to 75 mph second serves, while on the other hand there's Berrettini *not* seeing that he's being bamboozled.
The stats are fascinating, but of course all post-match. A player cannot quantify for themselves what's happening, mid-match, in any way that's close to such detail, but a coach can. For my money we will cheapen what it takes to win tough matches – whether they're tough tactically or emotionally/psychologically (see: Barty/Pliskova) – if the calls for letting coaches on court are heard and accepted all around. Worst case scenario, yes, but do we want a courtside coach getting these stats from an off-court team member and sharing them on changeovers? In the increasingly data-driven tennis world is that so far-fetched? (Can I use more hyphens?)
Making your opponent pay for missing first serves, somehow, is a basic tenet of a winning game. Letting a player like Nole start the point as if it's 21-out-of-the-hand only plays to his strengths. Berrettini never saw that, never did anything different. Whether the outcome would have changed is not sure, but at least the Italian would have thrown the challenge back into Djokovic's lap a bit more.
I didn't watch the whole match, but did Berettini ever try running around his backhand? Seems like that could be another tactic to try to get out of backhand jail, although Djokovic has a killer backhand dtl as well.
He did, many times, which then opened up the line for Djokovic to attack!
Oh mannn, I love how granular the stats breakdowns are, so well done! Definitely a step up from the freezing cold takes and petty fan feuds on /r/tennis and Tennis Twitter 🙃
Thanks Christina! Glad you enjoyed
Hi! Thanks for this great analysis.
I have a general question regarding Berrettini’s backhand. How do you compare it (in terms of quality) to the backhands of similar guys on the tour that rely heavily on their forehands/serve +1s and have exploitable backhands? For example Rublev, Hurkacz, Tsitsipas, Ruud, etc.
I’m asking because I’m struggling to make sense of that shot since he came back from his injury earlier this year. I feel like compared to 2019, it has improved and became more solid, but it is still very susceptible to breaking down more frequently than not.
Thanks Hann. It's unfortunately worse than all of those players if we're talking about topspin backhands. He has a better slice than all of them though so it's a bit more nuanced and even his topspin backhand has improved in the last few years (it was solid during the clay season for example). Given he's already 25 and in his prime (and past key developmental age) he probably just needs to find ways to make sure it doesn't get exposed like yesterday. More slices probably. A technique change would be tough at this stage of his career.
Should he just go full Fernando Gonzalez?
Hi Matt, thanks for a great analysis as always. It was very interesting to read about Djokovic's tactic on the 2nd serve, soft-balling it to the Berrettini backhand. I have a few questions about Djokovic's 1st serve strategy. I came across a piece by Craig O'Shanessey on atptour.com which pointed out that Djokovic when serving to Berrettini's forehand on the first serve was highly successful--he won 21/22 (!) 1st serves made wide to the deuce court and 13/13 (!!) 1st serves made down the T in the ad court. The success of this strategy in the deuce court is understandable because it pulls Berrettini out wide and opens up the court, but why was it equally effective in the ad court? Is it because it gives Berrettini no angle to work with on the return--or does Berrettini generally do something off the forehand return that makes it more attackable/prone to error? Finally, for all the success Novak had with this strategy it's interesting he mixed up his 1st serve locations on both sides (as you pointed out)--I'm presuming this is just so it doesn't become too predictable?
Thanks Ronnie. I didn't actually find the 1st serve strategy particularly interesting for a couple of reasons. 1. Novak did what he had been doing for most of the tournament, splitting between T and wide pretty evenly and winning high 70's to mid 80's % of points. No one this tournament had an answer for Novak's 1st serve and Berrettini was no exception. 2. Berrettini's 1st serve return has never been particularly good, so it was unlikely that Novak was ever going to struggle too much on that metric. As for that T serve on the AD side, Novak hits that serve more consistently re placement than maybe anyone on tour right now. It's this slice serve that swings away from the returner and has been a huge plus for him since about 2018, and devilishly difficult for most returners. As for your last question, yup, an even split of direction means Berrettini was left guessing at times.
This is fascinating. I thought that Djokovic was serving soft seconds because he was nervous and imo cost him the first set. In particular, the tiebreaker was lost because Berrettini was able to attack those puff-ball second serves. But even after that, everyone was thinking that Berrettini would have to maintain that high level which he just couldn't do.
You basically open with this thought, but ultimately I found this match so routine that it was almost boring. Besides the first set making things somewhat interesting, Djokovic never had to raise his level to crazy heights and I think it's because Berrettini is so one-dimensional.
This breakdown helps me realize that Berrettini is basically Roddick and it makes me somewhat impressed with his general success because one would think that it would be even harder to be a top player with this kind of game in today's environment. Even Roddick was working on his volleys and backhand long before he retired, ultimately culminating in his best match at 09 Wimbledon despite the loss.
Whenever Djokovic was on the ropes, he could hit it to Berrettini's backhand and re-set the point at neutral. And letting Djoker restart points at will is bad news for anyone on tour.