9 Comments
Jul 9, 2021Liked by Matthew Willis

Hi! I would like to ask about stats of unreturned serves. I understand that the lower percentage the better? Its similar to stats of unforced errors per game, isn’t it?

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Nope, it’s a server stat rather than a returner stat. So it’s the % of serves from a server that didn’t come back

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Jul 9, 2021Liked by Matthew Willis

Thanks for sharing these interesting data. Does it point to any significant tactical shifts that could make a difference ? For instance Denis might be better off trying to keep the rallies short?

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Shapo has the baseline offence to beat Novak in rallies, but he’ll probably have to return better than usual and serve well to have a chance to get the upper hand in the point early enough for that offence to matter. Novak will be looking to keep points very short as well on serve, especially given how great and untroubled his 1st serve has been this tournament so far. But yes Shapo will need to keep the points short as possible on his own serve. But probably more specifically this match is about whether Shapo can consistently get to positions where he can get the first strike in the point, on 2nd serve return points and in his own service games. On the flip side Djokovic hasn’t been tested physically at all yet this tournament and yet has played an incredible amount of tennis coming into wimbledon, so if Shapo can make Novak’s service games a bit of a grind and play some long points, that may well suit Shapo if the match extends past 3 sets.

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Jul 8, 2021Liked by Matthew Willis

Are Shapovalov's chances mainly based on winners and moments of inspiration to create or consolidate chances, as well as consistent serving? Just like aany player I suppose but it looks a tough ask based on the stats, thogh the Berrettini-Hurkacz match looks set to be a good one.

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Shapo has the game to bully Djokovic from the baseline, and the lefty 1st serve to win enough free points, but a lot will depend how often he'll get to do so in Djokovic's service games. Novak has been serving really well so far this tournament, on 1st serve placement especially. If Shapo can have an above average day on 2nd serve return (and put enough returns in play in general to avoid Djokovic coasting on serve), an above average day on his own 1st serve in big moments, and Novak is a bit patchy, then anything could happen. But obviously more things have to go right for Shapo than for Novak for this to be competitive.

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Yes that siunds about right! Just saw some ATP Cup highlights. Hopefully Shapovalov can raise his game for at least some of the match to make for an exciting duel.

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Do you think Novak will go into this match with high confidence considering he has not played top players so far and also it seems his level is not there yet?

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Some of it's available publicly through the wimbledon site. Some of it's for media. Some of it's hidden away behind boutique analytics firms that work with the players.

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