Matthew, do you happen to have any stats on points won from inside the baseline, specifically off mid to fore court shots? My seat-of-the-pants read of the match included real Nadal pressure on Medvedev in such situations, i.e., when Rafa was able to move in significantly and either force play with a rip or actually get to the net. My point here (no pun) is not that it won Nadal so many points outright, but that it created pressure. In some ways Cressy showed that a key to getting points from Medvedev is finding a way to not play points the way the Russian wants to; a simple tactic that holds true all the time, but in today's game is less available for many given how they, too, want to play points. Barty's slice backhand, and Nadal's in this match, are other examples of doing this imo.
Your stat showing the winning numbers on points of different lengths also points out the increasing pressure on Medvedev as the match wore on: by the end he couldn't find the safety in longer rallies he'd had at the outset, and that creates more pressure (again) on the shorter points (where he also came up even, and not ahead, as the match progressed).
Post match analysis can be deceptive, in that what appears clear afterwards is surely not being calculated in nearly the same way by players while in the heat of the battle. That's not to knock this work, which players certainly consider with coaches once the day is done, but it does highlight the brilliance of tennis' ban (sic) on on-court coaching, putting a premium on a player's being able to see and figure out what's going on without being nearly as specific as we can once it's all over. Me, I fail to see why anyone would want to remove the need for that mental aspect from the game.
Did you sleep *at all* before getting this digested, written up, and posting this, by the way? An incredible dissection of what we saw. Thanks very much
One other thing, which I believe is correct but I haven't your discipline to go back and check: Nadal had missed the 1st serve to the outside in the deuce box in his last few attempts leading up to his service in the 6/5 game, perhaps as many as 4 or 5 times successively. He found it in that game, for the ace. Amazing.
Thanks Skip. So I do not have the inside baseline stats for that match. But after watching that match closely a bunch of times I think you're right. Also one of the larger differences between the two players that Nadal could usually force or finish points in the mid court and Medvedev often couldn't. My experience with match analysis and players is that it's useful as an extra 5-10% max on top of what they already know about how a match unfolded and what to do in subsequent matchups. It's straight up not useful, or actionable, to a lot of players a lot of the time. Agree completely on coaching.
No, no sleep! Had other work to do on Monday so I pulled an all nighter on sunday eve to chart some of the match and have it finished on monday am.
RE your point about Nadal's serve, it's definitely true. Actually very funny to me how much Nadal struggled with two of his late career crutches in that match, the serve and the volley. The serve really wasn't there with any consistency in sets 1, 2 and 4 but it came up good enough in sets 3 and 5 and he got some help from other parts of his game in the moments it was struggling. Both of his wide serves struggled quite a bit yesterday until he really needed them late in the match(saved those pressure moments with AD serve at wide in 5th set)
Wonderful analysis that makes sense of what I observed in a state of great tension (that you can turn this around in just 24 hours is impressive!), in particular Nadal's ability to combat Medvedev's devastating dtl backhand and the greater precision of his first serve from set 3 onward. You may have seen vestige du jour's tweet showing precision of first serves of Berretini, Tsitsipas, Medvedev and Nadal through SFs. FIrst three are hitting near lines on almost all of first serves and Nadal's look just like his first two sets. Impressive that he recognized what he needed to do and was able to do it.
It seems to me there are three shots that Nadal can hit but doesn't like to unless it's necessary and he starts to get his confidence: the precision hard first-serve, the forehand dtl winner, and the offensive topspin backhand both dtl and cross court. Against Berretini, he won without needing them. Again Medvedev he was able to combine all three and win a tough match.
One last highly speculative thought. Might it be that Nadal actually benefited in terms of fitness by not practicing so much? As a two decade long follower of Nadal, I've always worried that he over-practices (and over-schedules) given his injury issues, but just accepted that it appears to be psychologically necessary for him and is part of the psychology that makes him a 21 slam champion. But perhaps he was fresher due to the enforced rest??
I think you're right, the rest certainly did Nadal good. He also has a track record of playing excellently after long injury absences for, probably, mostly that reason RE his body being fresh and recovered.
Terrific read, Thks for all you do. Fascinated by the +9 shots changearound. Meddy really was relying on 1st serves by the end. I’m actually disappointed he lost because I so want the narrative to change but hv to credit Nadal for hanging on, keeping so competitive and mentally outgunning his oppo
Thanks Susie. Agreed tbh, as much as I like the big 3 and I love watching them play, their radius of greatness is stunting a bunch of younger progression which has funny knock on effects. Just a side effect of having those three players exist at the same time I guess.
Matthew, do you happen to have any stats on points won from inside the baseline, specifically off mid to fore court shots? My seat-of-the-pants read of the match included real Nadal pressure on Medvedev in such situations, i.e., when Rafa was able to move in significantly and either force play with a rip or actually get to the net. My point here (no pun) is not that it won Nadal so many points outright, but that it created pressure. In some ways Cressy showed that a key to getting points from Medvedev is finding a way to not play points the way the Russian wants to; a simple tactic that holds true all the time, but in today's game is less available for many given how they, too, want to play points. Barty's slice backhand, and Nadal's in this match, are other examples of doing this imo.
Your stat showing the winning numbers on points of different lengths also points out the increasing pressure on Medvedev as the match wore on: by the end he couldn't find the safety in longer rallies he'd had at the outset, and that creates more pressure (again) on the shorter points (where he also came up even, and not ahead, as the match progressed).
Post match analysis can be deceptive, in that what appears clear afterwards is surely not being calculated in nearly the same way by players while in the heat of the battle. That's not to knock this work, which players certainly consider with coaches once the day is done, but it does highlight the brilliance of tennis' ban (sic) on on-court coaching, putting a premium on a player's being able to see and figure out what's going on without being nearly as specific as we can once it's all over. Me, I fail to see why anyone would want to remove the need for that mental aspect from the game.
Did you sleep *at all* before getting this digested, written up, and posting this, by the way? An incredible dissection of what we saw. Thanks very much
Great title, too. : )
One other thing, which I believe is correct but I haven't your discipline to go back and check: Nadal had missed the 1st serve to the outside in the deuce box in his last few attempts leading up to his service in the 6/5 game, perhaps as many as 4 or 5 times successively. He found it in that game, for the ace. Amazing.
Thanks Skip. So I do not have the inside baseline stats for that match. But after watching that match closely a bunch of times I think you're right. Also one of the larger differences between the two players that Nadal could usually force or finish points in the mid court and Medvedev often couldn't. My experience with match analysis and players is that it's useful as an extra 5-10% max on top of what they already know about how a match unfolded and what to do in subsequent matchups. It's straight up not useful, or actionable, to a lot of players a lot of the time. Agree completely on coaching.
No, no sleep! Had other work to do on Monday so I pulled an all nighter on sunday eve to chart some of the match and have it finished on monday am.
RE your point about Nadal's serve, it's definitely true. Actually very funny to me how much Nadal struggled with two of his late career crutches in that match, the serve and the volley. The serve really wasn't there with any consistency in sets 1, 2 and 4 but it came up good enough in sets 3 and 5 and he got some help from other parts of his game in the moments it was struggling. Both of his wide serves struggled quite a bit yesterday until he really needed them late in the match(saved those pressure moments with AD serve at wide in 5th set)
Wonderful analysis that makes sense of what I observed in a state of great tension (that you can turn this around in just 24 hours is impressive!), in particular Nadal's ability to combat Medvedev's devastating dtl backhand and the greater precision of his first serve from set 3 onward. You may have seen vestige du jour's tweet showing precision of first serves of Berretini, Tsitsipas, Medvedev and Nadal through SFs. FIrst three are hitting near lines on almost all of first serves and Nadal's look just like his first two sets. Impressive that he recognized what he needed to do and was able to do it.
It seems to me there are three shots that Nadal can hit but doesn't like to unless it's necessary and he starts to get his confidence: the precision hard first-serve, the forehand dtl winner, and the offensive topspin backhand both dtl and cross court. Against Berretini, he won without needing them. Again Medvedev he was able to combine all three and win a tough match.
One last highly speculative thought. Might it be that Nadal actually benefited in terms of fitness by not practicing so much? As a two decade long follower of Nadal, I've always worried that he over-practices (and over-schedules) given his injury issues, but just accepted that it appears to be psychologically necessary for him and is part of the psychology that makes him a 21 slam champion. But perhaps he was fresher due to the enforced rest??
I think you're right, the rest certainly did Nadal good. He also has a track record of playing excellently after long injury absences for, probably, mostly that reason RE his body being fresh and recovered.
Terrific read, Thks for all you do. Fascinated by the +9 shots changearound. Meddy really was relying on 1st serves by the end. I’m actually disappointed he lost because I so want the narrative to change but hv to credit Nadal for hanging on, keeping so competitive and mentally outgunning his oppo
Thanks Susie. Agreed tbh, as much as I like the big 3 and I love watching them play, their radius of greatness is stunting a bunch of younger progression which has funny knock on effects. Just a side effect of having those three players exist at the same time I guess.
Why do you think Nadal was slicing so much more early on? And did that help him at all you think?
When you posted about slice. I thought you were going to mention Nadal 😄