Barcelona Final - Nadal vs Tsitsipas 🎾

Nadal and Tsitsipas put on a show with big point play, + Barty vs Sabalenka

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Barcelona (ATP 500) Final

Nadal d Tsitsipas: 6-4, 6-7(6), 7-5

3 hours 38 minutes. The longest, best of three, ATP final since stats were tracked (1991).

A crazy contest that featured a lot of up and down periods, but also produced some magnificent big point play from both when under pressure on serve (Nadal would save 11/13 break points, Tsitsipas 8/12). Because the match was such a marathon, I’m going to be focusing on a few of the most important and interesting bits, the micro rather than the macro. Overall match stats or trends for such a long final really don’t tell you very much considering finals like this are decided by a few points here and there.

Very quick macro: Nadal’s backhand was very resilient today. In the Nadal Tsitsipas matchup, both players obviously let their forehand strengths do most of the talking…

• Nadal hit 27 forehand winners

• Tsitsipas hit 18 forehand winners

…But their backhands remaining consistent and not gifting errors, usually in the face of the other's forehand, is important: Nadal hit just 7 backhand unforced errors today to Tsitsipas’ 21 (12 of which came in set 3).

This should be particularly good news for Nadal given his below average backhand performance in Monte Carlo last week, where Rublev punished that wing. Today Rafa managed to consistently *avoid* hitting short when Tsitsipas was loading balls into his backhand corner, nor did he make soft errors when pushed deep to that side. Example here (@ 12 second mark):

Matthew Willis @mattracquet

A bright spot for Nadal today was his backhand defence. Other shots in this point are flashier but his deep lunging backhand that lands at Tsitsipas’ feet was missing in Monte Carlo. Tsitsipas would have had a short ball to attack vs most other opponents

Micro - Things get bad and then very good. Rinse and repeat

This was a match of two quite different halves. The first half (aside from a very good start from Tsitsipas) didn’t feature the best tennis from either player, with the first four breaks of serve containing soft errors from both. However, things really got going towards the end of the 2nd set, with Nadal having won the opener 6-4, and Tsitsipas serving to stay in the match at 4*-5:

Tsitsipas (in red) faces two Championship points on serve. The first one he bombs a big first serve, drive volley, smash. Too good, very little Nadal could do.

…the second one: same again, big first serve, big forehand, this time Nadal does more with the pass, but great volley. Too good again

Two brilliant points from Tsitsipas under (championship point) pressure. No hesitation, found big serves when he needed them, and attacked ruthlessly. He would hold two points later for 5-5.

The above 4*-5 game was actually a very good microcosm for the second half of the match, as it featured the players (Tsitsipas in this case) getting themselves into a horrible hole on serve thanks to some errors, but then pulling out clutch tennis to get out of that hole to hold.

This would become a bit of a recurring theme, for both (this would happen again the very next game at 5-5, with Nadal in a 0-40 hole on serve thanks to back to back unforced errors, but managing to find his way out with a good series of forehands.)

The Breaker

Nadal looked good for the first half of the tiebreak, running out to a 4*-2 lead, once again within touching distance of the trophy, thanks to good serving and a Tsitsipas forehand unforced error. But Rafa ended up losing the breaker (his 9th in a row against top 10 players), partly because of the following couple of points:

Tsitsipas serving at 2*-4: It’s very rare that Nadal forces an opponent into playing a defensive, short slice on clay and then loses the point. But Tsitsipas importantly kept it to just one mini break with this really impressive display of backhand strength. The big drive down the line is a nice indication that this is one of the better single handed matchups vs Nadal on clay, simply because Tsitsipas’ height allows him to take on and drive backhands at chest rather than shoulder (or higher) height.

But Nadal was still up by a mini break, serving at 4*-3… and then this happened:

This point was an indication of Nadal not quite hitting his top form yet this clay season. He hits the perfect serve out wide to Tsitsipas’ backhand, gets the short ball he wants to attack, but then plays very safe & central with the forehand down the line into open space, and ends up losing the point and his mini break lead. You wouldn’t expect Nadal to be losing points like this after a few more weeks of clay.

After another exchange of mini breaks, Nadal then double faults at 6-6 and Tsitsipas takes the 2nd set. It’s speculative but I’d guess a slightly sharper Nadal wins the 3-4 point and gives himself chances to take the breaker earlier. Truly excellent fight and focus from Tsitsipas to take it the distance though.

Another Championship Point Save

Both were pretty comfortable on serve to start the 3rd set, with Tsitsipas’ first serve in particular doing serious damage (he would finish the 3rd set winning 81% of his 1st serve points, his highest of any set). But things once again got interesting at 4*-5, this time with Nadal serving to stay in the match. Rafa committed a couple of very unusual errors, most notably forehand misses at 15-0 & 30-30. And suddenly Tsitsipas had his first championship point:

Nadal (purple), with a slightly lucky assist from a net cord, saves championship point. This was another example however of relatively solid backhand defence from deep positions mentioned in macro at the top. Tsitsipas perhaps a net cord tip away from the trophy…

Nadal then manages to hold for 5-5, after some generous Tsitsipas backhand unforced errors (perhaps still thinking about championship point). This game was particularly interesting because Nadal’s first serve went missing when he needed it (his serve has been hit or miss most of the last fortnight). But, as part of a larger trend of the 3rd set, when Nadal missed his 1st serve he managed to reinforce his quite weak 2nd serves with stellar rally play:

2nd serve points won by set:

• Set 1 Nadal: 4/13 or 31%

• Set 2 Nadal 6/13 or 46%

• Set 3 Nadal 14/18 or 78% (1st serve points won just 14/20 or 70%)

The Last Stand

Once again Tsitsipas gets himself in a hole while serving, hitting a forehand unforced error and a double fault which helps open up 15-40, and break points for Nadal. But the Greek then pulls out some wonderful tennis (again) to save them:

Break point No.1: Once again on a big point Tsitsipas finds a huge first serve, a forehand deep into the Nadal backhand, and a great volley put away. Brilliant.

Break point No.2: Rinse and repeat. Excellent again.

The fantastic Tsitsipas resilience would eventually succumb to Nadal however, with Rafa finally breaking through for 6*-5 a few deuces later in the same game. A slightly better, deeper return made Tsitsipas’ 2nd shot, that forehand cross court into Nadal’s backhand, just a bit harder:

This was really the only time in the second half of the match that Nadal managed to get a better and deeper return in play when up break point. Just about every other BP had been snuffed out with Tsitsipas serving big down the T and then pouncing on the short return, hitting the forehand big into the Nadal backhand. He tried to the same again in this point, but that forehand +1 cross court was just a tad more complex than the previous ones and he makes the error. These are small things, but the margins in these matches are razor thin.

But the match wouldn’t be complete without Nadal again creating problems for himself on his own serve, before finally coming up with the goods. Serving for the title at 6*-5 and 30-0 up, Rafa digs himself half way to China via a forehand unforced error, a double fault, and a missed volley, to set up break back point for Tsitsipas. But just like the rest of the match, the point play under pressure was where this match shone:

Nadal plays the point he should have done at 4-3 in the 2nd set tiebreaker. Off a very good Tsitsipas return, Nadal, falling back, finds a huge forehand down the line, this time not so central nor short, and forces the error. Big.

And that was that. Nadal would eventually serve it out to claim his 12th Barcelona title, also reclaiming the No.2 ranking for his troubles.

Nadal finished the 3rd set with just 6 unforced errors (his lowest of any set), most of which came in the last few games. Tsitsipas would finish the 3rd set with 19 unforced errors (nearly double his set 1 and 2 tallies of 10 each). But despite all that it could have easily gone either way. Neither player deserved to lose. Another reason not to assign macro overall stats too much importance during long matches like this.

TL;DR: An up and down, but thrilling match. Neither Nadal nor Tsitsipas found their best with much consistency until they were forced to find something special under pressure (pressure that was often thrust upon them by their own errors).

Tsitsipas’ big point play on serve was fantastic, consistently finding big T serves, cross court forehands, and net rushing (a pattern of shots that rarely failed today in big moments) to take the racquet out of his opponent’s hand when it mattered. That opportune, attacking instinct is rare and extremely valuable, and will continue to serve him well (his net play was solid today, winning 70% or 29/41). The Greek was unlucky not to walk away the winner, with an inch of a net cord perhaps the difference between a loss and a significant win. I fully expect to see him continue to fulfil his awesome potential on this surface, and he arguably remains the form player right now.

But as is usually the case, the biggest problem for those who make it to these clay court finals is simply the gigantic gatekeeper who stubbornly inhabits the other side of the net.

And even when that gatekeeper isn’t quite at his best, it’s still Rafa on clay.

enrico maria riva @enricomariariva

Players to beat Nadal in a Final on clay since 2003 (61-8) Federer Djokovic Murray Zeballos

enrico maria riva @enricomariariva

Players to beat Nadal in a Final on clay since 2003 (60-8) Federer Djokovic Murray Zeballos

— Zeballos = GOAT

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Stuttgart (WTA 500) Final

Barty d Sabalenka: 3-6, 6-0, 6-4

Very interesting clash of styles. And a very up and down match.

TL;DR Sabalenka pulled off her preferred brand of big hitting really successfully in set 1, helped by a brilliant service game at 2-2 where she saved break points with big forehands, followed by three un-returnable serves in a row. But sets 2 and 3 featured Barty turning things around on return (40% return points won in set 1 compared to 65% in both sets 2 & 3) and more often than not forcing Sabalenka away from her preferred baseline big hitting patterns. Barty managed to find some great blocked returns to force Sabalenka to play her second shot post-serve near the service box off low pace and low bouncing balls:

This is not where Sabelenka (near end) wants to be hitting her 2nd shot post serve!

Barty also managed to work in more and more angles with her forehand, exploiting Sabalenka’s inferior lateral movement (and a potential leg injury):

Great counterpunching point from Barty. Absorbing and redirecting Sabalenka’s linear pace into uncomfortable positions in the court, and then finding the open space

All of the above coaxed plenty of errors from Sabalenka, who looked very erratic in set 2 especially. And despite an up and down final set from both, exchanging breaks mostly via errors, Barty’s superior variation, movement and angles won the day. Very impressive week and final from the world No.1, winning even without her best tennis.

+ Belgrade (ATP 250) Final: Berrettini d Karatsev 6-1, 3-6, 7-6

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Shot of the day:

Crazy half-smash, half-forehand winner from Nadal, off a Tsitsipas smash.

Next week are the ATP 250’s in Munich and Estoril, and then the clay season really gets going with Madrid, followed by Rome, and then Roland Garros.

See you on Thursday

— MW

Twitter @MattRacquet

If you have any questions or thoughts about what you just read you can leave a comment below and I’ll answer it. No question is dumb.

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// Looking for more?

Analysis of the Tsitsipas vs Rublev Monte Carlo Final: https://theracquet.substack.com/p/monte-carlo-final-tsitsipas-vs-rublev

Daniil Medvedev Does *Not* Like The Clay - Do Flatter Hitters Have it Harder On Clay? https://theracquet.substack.com/p/daniil-medvedev-does-not-like-the

The Modernisation Of Tennis: https://theracquet.substack.com/p/the-modernisation-of-tennis

Federer, Nadal & Djoković Rivalry Impact: https://theracquet.substack.com/p/federer-nadal-and-djokovic-make-a

Tennis’ Identity Crisis: The Umpire Problem https://theracquet.substack.com/p/tennis-identity-crisis

Analysis of the Djoković Medvedev Australian Open Final: https://theracquet.substack.com/p/the-racquet-micro-not-macro-match

Analysis of the Nadal Medvedev US Open Final Final: https://theracquet.substack.com/p/the-racquet-the-5th-set