Where Is Federer's Level?

Is Federer playing the same, better or worse than in 2018 and 2019?

Note: I make small edits to all these posts if I find mistakes, or if I have anything to add. You can see the most recent version by tapping the title (to open the web version) at the top of this issue.

Where is Federer at?

This isn’t a question that’s ever going to have a precise answer. The small sample sizes and different early round opponents from year to year, affecting serve and return stats, muddy the waters a bit. But we can at least have a look and see if there are any obvious indications of how much better or worse Federer is playing than the last two years he played Wimbledon in 2018 and 2019. The Swiss made the quarter-finals in 2018 and the final in 2019, so both years seem like good, and recent enough to be relevant, benchmarks for Federer’s week one grass-court form.

Here’s how he stacks up:

Net point frequency is the % of net points out of total points. S&V = Serve & Volley. Red = worse, green = better.

As you can see, not a lot of green in the 2021 column. On average Federer has been worse in nearly every category this year compared to week one of 2018 & 2019.

Despite the fact that different opponents can skew different performance categories, there are a few ways to look at this data. The ATP serve rating avg of his opponents in 2018 & 2019 is very similar to the serve rating of his opponents in 2021 (263 compared to 264). This rating is calculated by a formula taking into account average 1st serve return points won, 2nd serve return points won, % of return games won, and % of break points won. His opponents for 2018 & 2019 were Lacko, Lajovic, Clarke, Harris, Struff, and Pouille (compared to Mannarino, Gasquet & Norrie this year). This means, at least on average, that Federer’s return performance should be vaguely consistent across those two groups of players. But again, the sample size is small so take it with a grain of salt.

However, the return rating of his opponents this year in 2021 is significantly better than it was in 2018 and 2019 (143 compared to 128). This means a dip in Federer’s 2021 serve performance would be understandable.

The worrying news for Federer is that both his serve and return performances have taken pretty significant hits in 2021 compared to 2018 & 2019, as well as some of the more relevant general areas like baseline point performance. I’m going to run through a couple of the more important and interesting categories and how they’re manifesting in his matches:

↑Federer is facing stronger returners this year on avg than in 2018 and 2019, but a 10% drop off is huge. This is Federer’s lowest week one 1st serve performance since 2003.

↑Federer has faced similar calibre servers on average this year compared to 2018 and 2019, so a 7% drop off on 1st serve return and an 11%(!) drop off on 2nd serve return points won is a bit surprising. Especially considering none of Norrie, Gasquet or Mannarino have particularly devastating serves. Fed’s block/slice 1st serve return in particular has not been at his usual level, and his attempts to drive aggressive 2nd serve returns have also been regularly misfiring. This is obviously hurting his ability to generate as many break point opportunities (-0.2 per return game).

↑This section is really interesting.

• Federer is coming to net less often this year (-3%) and winning fewer of those net points (-8%).

• Federer is serve and volleying at the same rate.

• Federer is making more unforced errors per game this year (+0.2).

• Federer is hitting the same rate of rally winners.

• Federer is losing far more of the baseline points than he usually does (-11%). For context, Djokovic’s baseline point win rate is currently sitting at 57%.

The reason this is interesting is because of what Federer has said after his matches this week:

Vs Mannarino:

“We chose a tactic that was passive, slicing to his forehand and seeing what would happen, but as the match went on I started to get so tentative and he started to get better because I probably allowed him to.”

Vs Gasquet and Norrie:

“But against Gasquet I was able to play very offensive and I made a lot of mistakes early on in the match, but it was because I was on the front foot and forcing plays. As the match went on those mistakes started to go away and I was able to take control of the match. And same again today vs Norrie, I was very clear how I want to play (aggressive).” Federer also noted that he felt much more calm and in control against both Norrie & Gasquet.

Federer seems happy to make unforced errors as long as he eventually finds his rhythm and doesn’t allow his opponent too much room to dictate and/or grow in confidence. The potential problem for Federer is that he doesn’t yet seem to have the baseline supremacy he would normally have in week one of Wimbledon, nor is he making up for that shortcoming by trying to shorten points by being any more offensive at net (lower net point frequency vs 2018 & 2019) or from the baseline (same rally winner rate to 2018 & 2019). Again, this is all quite small sample stuff, but it will be very interesting to see whether, as the opposition gets tougher, Federer gets punished for that baseline point performance (46% in 2021 so far vs 57% in 2018 & 2019). Either Federer’s own serve or baseline consistency will have to improve quite a bit, and/or he’ll have to find ways to shorten points by rushing the net and going for winners earlier in the point.

↑Federer is hitting aces slightly less frequently (although against better returners on avg this is completely understandable) and interestingly is serving slower on both first and second serve on average¹. Whether this drop off in service speed is meaningfully correlated to his lower than usual serve performance is tough to say, but it probably doesn’t help, even if a 3mph drop on 1st serve and 2mph drop on 2nd serve doesn’t seem like much.

On to week two

The good news for Federer is that his draw in 2021 has been kind in terms of playing him into form. Tomorrow, on the last ever Manic Monday, Federer will play Lorenzo Sonego, which should produce an enormous grass court experience edge in favour of the Swiss. Sonego has played just 13 tour level matches on grass in his life compared to Federer’s 219! If Federer can come through that match, he will face Medvedev or Hurkacz, the former representing a significant step up from anything he’s faced this tournament so far, and an opponent who is likely to test the limits of many of the categories outlined above.

So as Federer makes his way into the 2nd week at Wimbledon, which frankly has already exceeded many observer’s expectations given pre-tournament form, double knee surgery, and advanced tennis age, look out for a couple of key performance indicators. Either Federer’s baseline consistency is going to have to improve significantly, or more likely given his comments about wanting to stay aggressive, his serve, ace/unreturned rate, rally winner rate, and net point frequency (and maybe serve and volley frequency) will have to be bumped up. The margins in this sport are ultra fine, especially as the tournament goes deeper and opposition gets stiffer, but if anyone can rummage around in their bag of tricks to pull out a few extra percentage points here and there, it’s Roger Federer on Centre Court.

— MW

Top: Brunskill/Getty — Bottom: AELTC/JOE TOTH/POOL/AFP/Getty

See you on Thursday

Twitter @MattRacquet

If you have any questions or thoughts about what you just read you can leave a comment below & I’ll answer it. No question is dumb.

The Racquet goes out twice a week, a (free) topical piece every Thursday and a (paid) analysis piece every Sunday/Monday.

// Looking for more?

(Most recent) Wimbledon - Slip, Slidin’ Away: https://theracquet.substack.com/p/wimbledon-slip-slidin-away

Berrettini Conquers Queens https://theracquet.substack.com/p/berrettini-conquers-queens

Djokovic Foils The Forehands https://theracquet.substack.com/p/djokovic-foils-the-forehands

Medvedev Loves(?) The Clay? https://theracquet.substack.com/p/medvedev-lovesthe-clay

Osaka Boycotts The Press: https://theracquet.substack.com/p/naomi-osaka-boycotts-the-press

Federer Redux - The Iceberg Flips: https://theracquet.substack.com/p/the-federer-redux

Rome Final Analysis - Nadal vs Djokovic: https://theracquet.substack.com/p/rome-final-nadal-vs-djokovic

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Analysis of the Tsitsipas vs Rublev Monte Carlo Final: https://theracquet.substack.com/p/monte-carlo-final-tsitsipas-vs-rublev

Do Flatter Hitters Have it Harder On Clay? https://theracquet.substack.com/p/daniil-medvedev-does-not-like-the

The Modernisation Of Tennis: https://theracquet.substack.com/p/the-modernisation-of-tennis

Tennis’ Identity Crisis: The Umpire Problem https://theracquet.substack.com/p/tennis-identity-crisis

Analysis of the Djoković Medvedev Australian Open Final: https://theracquet.substack.com/p/the-racquet-micro-not-macro-match

1. Extra info: Federer’s fastest serve speeds in week one of Wimbledon this year are very similar to 2018 and 2019.